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With Harris' loss, Newsom's stock is rising again in California and beyond
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With Harris' loss, Newsom's stock is rising again in California and beyond

Gov. Gavin Newsom's political star power waned as Vice President Kamala Harris rose to the top of the Democratic Party in the months leading up to the 2024 election.

Fewer reporters followed the California governor's movements. Conversations about his presidential prospects were reduced to murmurs about whether he would be relevant in eight years. Some of his own political advisers turned their attention to electing Harris.

Everything is expected to change after her presidential campaign against former President Trump failed on Tuesday and voters elected the Republican to a second term in the land's highest office.

“Newsom will lead the resistance administration as governor for the next two years and will be a very prominent and nationally recognized party leader after that,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches political communication at USC, UC Berkeley and Pepperdine.

“There will be dozens of other plausible Democrats considering the 2028 race, but none of them are running with the advantages that Newsom has designed for himself.”

As the liberal antithesis to conservative dogma on abortion, immigration and LGBTQ+ rights, California is naturally poised to repeat the role the state played during the first Trump presidency as an opponent of the GOP and protector of Democratic values. Democrats in the state Capitol are already talking about calling a special session of the legislative session before Trump is sworn in to strengthen state laws against possible federal challenges.

California's position elevates Newsom, who has spent recent years raising his profile in the culture wars against Republicans, raising millions of dollars for Democratic candidates and traveling the country as a surrogate for Biden and Harris, in talks the 2028 presidential candidates automatically come to the fore.

In an interview after campaigning for Democratic congressional candidates two days before the election, Newsom declined to discuss the reality of the election as a crucial turning point in his own political future. The governor is often cautious about running for president, saying it's not on his radar.

Instead, the Democratic governor expressed concern about Trump's return to the White House and spoke about his administration's preparatory work in the months leading up to the election.

“He wants to put a crowbar in the spokes of our wheels in a nanosecond,” Newsom said.

In his acceptance speech on Tuesday evening, Trump said that Americans had given him “an unprecedented and powerful mandate.” He also promised to make good on his campaign promises, which include mass deportations, the prosecution of his political enemies and ending federal disaster aid for the California wildfires.

The Newsom administration has completed an analysis of Project 2025, which has been described as a guide for a new GOP administration and includes plans to replace thousands of career federal civil servants with Trump supporters who will pursue a far-right agenda. The governor's staff also analyzed what could be at risk in California.

His administration, with the help of Attorney General Rob Bonta, has already begun making the state “Trump-proof.” They reviewed more than 100 lawsuits filed by California against the federal government during the first administration to identify potential vulnerabilities for the state and set the president-elect's agenda.

Although Newsom said it was premature to say definitively that he would call the newly elected state legislature into a special session in December to pass legislation protecting state policies before Trump takes office, both he and House Speaker Robert Rivas have (D-Hollister) said this was a case of probability. A special session on abortion rights and climate change are important concerns for the Newsom administration.

“There's a diagram of everything these guys have talked about as it relates to California, everything we've dealt with in the past,” Newsom said Sunday. “There is an understanding of where they want to go in the future.”

Trump's victory could make it harder for Newsom to implement his own agenda before he leaves office in two years.

Newsom said Sunday that he has a list of “73 things” he wants to get done. Ahead of Election Day, election officials said his broad list included better preparing the state for bird flu outbreaks and building sufficient electric vehicle charging infrastructure to support his goal of banning the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035.

The governor rejected the notion that Trump would thwart his plans, but said he was not naive about the fact that “this is a very challenging environment” if Trump wins. He called the former president “delusional,” “completely discouraged.” Confused.”

“We continue to ride as hard and with the same energy,” Newsom said Sunday. “But there’s a lot of noise and I’m very familiar with it. I've dealt with this guy for years. I’m better prepared than most.”

Three men walk among the bare and blackened trees and the charred remains of burned houses

Then-President Trump toured fire damage in Paradise, California in 2018 with then-Governor Gavin Newsom (left) and outgoing Gov. Jerry Brown.

(Evan Vucci/Associated Press)

As the state that is home to Rep. Adam B. Schiff, who was elected as California's junior senator on Tuesday, as well as former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Harris, Newsom says there is no bigger target for Trump than California.

“We won’t be shy. We're not just going to sit here on defense, we're going to build coalitions and we're going to build partnerships with other states and AGs, not just other governors,” Newsom said before the election.

Newsom bolstered his image as a fighter for the party after criticizing national Democrats for not taking the offensive in the culture wars. The California Democrat launched his own “Campaign for Democracy” in 2023, giving himself the opportunity to travel the country to raise money for other Democrats and increase his profile.

Newsom became a top surrogate for Biden after the president announced his re-election campaign while continuing to visit other states on behalf of Democrats and debate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Fox News. Newsom remained a Biden supporter even as other top Democrats called for the president to withdraw from the 2024 race after his poor debate performance over the summer.

After Biden endorsed Harris as his replacement on the ballot, the discussion surrounding Newsom shifted to what he would do after he leaves California and whether he would be able to keep his name in the news for a possible presidential run in 2032 to hold if Harris defeated Trump and won a second term.

Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant, said Newsom has positioned himself well on cultural issues within the party that matter to the Democratic base of college-educated white voters, homeowners and the upper middle class.

But the question remains whether another Californian can win over the American people in four years. Harris' failure in the presidential campaign underscores the reality that Democrats must be able to speak out on working-class issues if they want to beat Republicans and retake the White House, Madrid said.

“I think that no democrat will be viable in the future unless you can appeal to the Latin American working class,” Madrid said. “And that’s not at the top of his resume.”

So there is reason to be skeptical about how high Newsom could rise, Madrid said, if he decides to run for president.

“In a primary he's playing really well, but it's going to be a question of viability, can he bring an Arizona, a Nevada, a Pennsylvania, a North Carolina back into the fold and make them competitive?”

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