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Why AP called the Michigan Senate race for Elissa Slotkin
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Why AP called the Michigan Senate race for Elissa Slotkin

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin won Michigan's knife-edge race for the U.S. Senate seat, defeating former Republican congressman Mike Rogers in a battle of attrition. In the end, Slotkin was in the lead after there weren't enough ballots left to count for Rogers to overtake her lead of about 18,000 votes when The Associated Press called the race at 3:12 p.m. Wednesday.

The result was a game-changer for Rogers, who built a significant early lead that lasted into the early hours of Wednesday morning. But populous Democratic strongholds, including Wayne County, home to Detroit, still had large volumes of ballots to count. And over the course of Wednesday, Slotkin improved her standing by winning many of the following updates as election officials continued to tabulate the vote and release new numbers.

Although the race is close, Rogers would need to capture over 64 percent of the remaining votes to overtake Slotkin's lead. His campaign has not said whether he will request a recount, which he is allowed to do under Michigan law.

Slotkin joined Wisconsin Rep. Tammy Baldwin, who held two “blue wall” Senate seats for Democrats in states Trump won.

CANDIDATES: Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers

WINNER: Slotkin

POLL CLOSURE: 8:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE RACE:

Not long ago, Republicans were a dominant force in Michigan, controlling the governor's office and both houses of the Legislature while holding a majority of the state's congressional seats. But they have long had problems when it comes to the U.S. Senate. This year was no exception, although it was close.

Slotkin, a former CIA analyst, has been a strong activist throughout her career in Congress. Meanwhile, in Florida, Rogers was persuaded to come out of retirement to run. The race decided who would replace longtime Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, whose decision to retire after five terms had turned a once-safe seat into an opportunity for Republicans. The GOP regained a three-vote majority in the Senate, but a win in Michigan would have helped boost its numbers.

Rogers, the former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, gave Michigan Republicans a chance to end their 24-year drought in the U.S. Senate race. Despite serving Michigan in the House for years, Rogers retreated to the Miami area and was accused by Democrats of letting his Michigan ties wither.

The Republican Party in Michigan is also in disarray, with a pro-Trump faction often at odds with the state's moderate, pro-business establishment, which was once the party's secret to success in the state. However, that success faded a few years ago when Democrats recaptured the governor's office, the Legislature and the majority of congressional seats.

Rogers almost overcame this drama.

WHY AP CALLED THE RACE: Slotkin was leading by about 18,700 votes when AP called the race after determining there weren't enough votes left to count to catch up to Rogers. Rogers had been leading before late-declared votes from Wayne, home of Detroit, and other large Democratic-leaning counties pushed Slotkin into the lead. Along with Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, she held two seats in the Blue Wall Senate for the Democrats.

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Learn more about how and why the AP chooses winners in U.S. elections below declare election 2024, A series from The Associated Press designed to help understand American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to improve its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. Learn more about AP's Democracy Initiative Here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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