Topline

Growing election betting platform Polymarket confirmed to multiple news outlets that a France-based individual is behind many of the recent bets on former President Donald Trump's return to the Oval Office, putting an end to speculation about whether the “whale” was making bets amounting to several million dollars in the election. This was done illegally in the states.

Important facts

Surprising fact

It is illegal for Americans to place bets on Polymarket, unlike rival platforms like Kalshi and PredictIt, which only set a limit of $850 per user on each betting market. Polymarket's investigation into the user's origins was first reported on Tuesday, while blockchain experts identified the big Trump bets as likely coming from a single person. The identity of the user behind the bets sparked considerable speculation on social media.

Big number

63%. These are Trump's implied win odds at Polymarket, which favor Trump more than poll-based prediction models like FiveThirtyEight, giving Trump a 52% chance of winning a second presidency.

Important background

Election betting markets have become a major topic of conversation this election season. Trump called the “new phenomenon” Polymarket at a campaign rally last week and said he “don't know what the hell it means, but it means we're doing pretty well.” Trump isn't the only one aware of this is what the betting odds on the election actually say; Polymarket's 63% to 37% probability of victory for Trump compared to Vice President Kamala Harris does not indicate a 25-point lead in the polls, but rather that the betting market is pricing in a Trump victory in 63 out of 100 hypothetical elections. In national polls, Harris and Trump are tied two weeks before Election Day.

Crucial quote

“Unfortunately, this fundamental misunderstanding is responsible for much of the misinformation about Polymarket and other prediction market platforms,” a Polymarket spokesperson stressed in a statement to CNBC.

Further reading

ForbesMeet the 26-year-old who is building a multi-billion dollar prediction marketFrom Nina Bambysheva

ForbesTrump's Polymarket election odds are over 65% – as the site examines big betsFrom Derek Saul