On October 20, Moldova faces a crucial election that could change its future. A small republic in Eastern Europe that is seemingly insignificant on a global scale, Moldova is engaged in an existential struggle for its democratic future – with Russia playing an overt and unprecedented role in trying to influence the outcome.

Moldovans will vote on pro-Western President Maia Sandu's re-election bid while also holding a referendum on whether to include the goal of European Union (EU) membership in the constitution. These elections are taking place against the backdrop of Russia's ongoing war in neighboring Ukraine, making the stakes particularly high. The outcome will be closely watched by international actors such as the EU and the United States, both of which have warned of Russian interference and hybrid threats aimed at destabilizing Moldova. As a country at a strategic crossroads between the West and Russia's self-proclaimed sphere of influence, Moldova has been a key target for disinformation campaigns and other forms of foreign manipulation.

The results of this election will either strengthen Moldova's resilience to external pressures or make it more vulnerable to foreign influences. Ultimately, the vote will play a crucial role in shaping Moldova's political direction, security and international alliances, with long-term implications for the country's development.

A victory by pro-Western forces would strengthen Moldova's alignment with the West, while a victory by pro-Russian factions could increase security risks by aligning Moldova more closely with Russia's regional agenda.

Although Moldova is a young republic, it has earned recognition as a functioning electoral democracy with all the elements that such status entails. The country holds regular elections and has a dynamic multi-party system. Since the end of the Cold War, Moldova has demonstrated its ability to facilitate peaceful transfers of power between rival parties. Even in politically turbulent moments such as the “Twitter Revolution” of 2009, in which the leadership changed from a pro-Russian to a pro-European government, the democratic process remained orderly and intact.

Despite all the internal and external challenges, Moldova has managed to preserve the basic principles of electoral democracy. However, this time it could be a different story.

In the shadow of corruption and foreign interference

The October 20 elections will take place in an environment marked by what may be the largest case of electoral bribery in Moldova's history. For months, Moscow has been actively involved in supporting certain factions within Moldova.

Millions of dollars in cash were reportedly smuggled into the country by people linked to fugitive U.S.-sanctioned oligarch Ilan Shor, circumventing law enforcement efforts to stop the flow of illicit money. Authorities had organized searches at the airport to stop this parade of people traveling to Moscow to secretly bring back cash. However, Russia has found other ways to funnel funds to Moldova. Russia's MIR payment system is now reportedly channeling funds to voters in Moldova, particularly through financial networks in the Transnistria region – a breakaway territory that has long served as a base for Moscow's influence operations.

The Moldovan authorities have raised the alarm about large-scale vote buying. In September alone, the General Police Inspectorate documented cases of bribery of at least 130,000 citizens and illegal transfers from Russia worth more than $15 million. In reality, the size could be significantly larger, with some officials estimating it at around $100 million for the entire campaign.

The funds are funneled into programs aimed at building a national vote-buying network that resembles financial pyramids with complicated layers of transactions designed to evade scrutiny. These funds range from “social allowances” for Moldovan pensioners to salary bonuses for employees of local government structures in the Gagauz Autonomous Region. According to police and independent reports, the money is now ending up in the hands of so-called local “coordinators” and “supporters” of the “Victory” electoral bloc, a political entity founded in Moscow and reportedly controlled from there.

But it's not just money that flows into Moldova; Disinformation also plays a crucial role in this election. The Atlantic Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab tracks the distribution of fake letters purporting to come from public institutions, as well as the incitement of hate speech and media attacks. Using communications tools like Telegram, Moscow's agents appear to be paying individuals to generate and spread disinformation on a massive scale. For example, a chatbot called “STOP UE/СТОП ЕС” aims to recruit individuals against the EU referendum. In return for completing simple tasks – such as posting on Facebook, recruiting others and convincing voters to vote against EU integration – participants can earn up to $280 if the majority of people at their polling station vote against the EU referendum is correct. Moldovan police revealed this month that payments for the anti-EU campaign organized on Telegram were made illegally through a sanctioned Russian bank, with funds from a Russian non-governmental organization called “Evrazia” (Eurasia) ranging from fifty dollars a month to “supporters”. more than $2,500 for regional “leaders.” This method of recruiting and paying “ambassadors” is widely used across Moldova, including in Gagauzia and Chișinău, with several similar chatbots reported.

The level of disinformation being spread in the run-up to this election is unprecedented in Moldova. The Kremlin's goal appears to be to overwhelm voters with so much misleading information that they will no longer be able to distinguish truth from lies, and ultimately to undermine trust in Moldova's democratic institutions.

Not so secret foreign interference

The direct involvement of the Russian Federation is particularly alarming. Unlike previous elections in which Moscow's influence was more subtle, this time the Kremlin has made no effort to hide its role as a major donor to certain political campaigns. Russia's open involvement raises serious concerns about Moldova's sovereignty and the fairness of its elections. The Kremlin doesn't just support pro-Russian factions; It is actively trying to reshape Moldova's political landscape to serve its own geopolitical interests.

The non-governmental organization Evrazia, which is transparent about its role in funneling funds to Moldova, has direct ties to the Kremlin and is headed by Alyona Arshinova, a deputy in the Russian Duma and vice president of the ruling United Russia party.

Moscow's efforts to influence the presidential election and the constitutional referendum are strategically aimed at delegitimizing this crucial democratic exercise and discrediting the very idea of ​​European integration.

Russia has for years viewed Moldova's turn toward European integration as a threat to its regional influence. Now it is pulling out all the stops to disrupt this process, using financial, political and media tools to create divisions within Moldovan society. Russia's goal is clear: to use all means possible to pull Moldova back into its sphere of influence.

Moldova's democracy is at stake. The integrity of its electoral system, the sovereignty of its institutions and the trust of its citizens are at stake.

Victoria Olari is a Research Associate for Moldova at the Atlantic Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab.

Further reading

Image: Pedestrians walk past campaign tents of Moldovan presidential candidates Vasile Tarlev and Alexandru Stoianoglo set up on a street ahead of the country's upcoming presidential elections and a referendum on future European Union membership in Chisinau, Moldova, October 15, 2024. REUTERS/Vladislav Culiomza