As Election Day approaches in the United States, over 78 million ballots have already been cast in 47 states and the District of Columbia. Pre-election voting trends provide important insight into voter behavior and who is likely to win the race for the White House. Here are three key takeaways:

From 2020 onwards, voter turnout will decrease

Voter turnout for early voting in 2024 is down significantly compared to the 2020 pandemic election. While over 110 million Americans voted in early 2020, primary voting is expected to account for around 50% of all ballots this year. This is much more consistent with the 2022 midterm elections. Overall, voting before the election is declining. In some states, more voters opted to vote early in person than in 2020, considering the pandemic was at its peak.

The states of Georgia and North Carolina saw record numbers of early in-person voting, although absentee voting has declined due to stricter regulations.

Republicans increase vote share before election

Following Trump's campaign's election rhetoric, more Republicans voted early in person and by mail, a significant departure from anti-voting communications before the 2020 election.

In 27 states, registered Democrats cast 37% of pre-election ballots, while registered Republicans cast 35%. In the last election, 42% of Democrats chose to vote against 30% of Republicans.

In key battlegrounds such as Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina, Republican early voting shares have increased.

In Arizona, 41% of primary voters were Republican, while in Nevada Republicans increased their share by just 1 point to 37% since 2020. In North Carolina, where Trump rallied with supporters on the final day of his campaign, Republicans held 33% of the vote ahead of the election. In critical Pennsylvania, Republicans had 33% of the vote before the election

Persistent but ever-shrinking gender gap

The gender gap in early voting remains significant, with women casting more ballots than men, particularly in states like Georgia and Pennsylvania. However, this gap is slightly smaller in both percentage and overall terms than in 2020. This change reflects a broader pattern of reduced early voting overall.

These trends highlight a dynamic electoral environment with implications for voter turnout and partisan dynamics as Election Day progresses.