Myktybek Orolbai vs. Mateusz Rebecki: Although Orolbai doesn't have the same pace as Carlos Diego Ferreira, he has fourteen years of youth under his belt with CDF and is a sharper striker with his straight left wing. The Kyrgyzstan's wrestling has the potential to push him up the rankings in the future, but right now he's 2-0 in the UFC and seems nearly untouchable to unranked fighters.

Orolbai's only professional loss came against an undefeated Russian prospect, and Rebecki has shown enough weaknesses in his game that I'm confident the 26-year-old will get the job done. Submission offers the best chance of his winning method, and against a fighter who has gas tank issues, I will always half bet on a last round finish.

Orolbai from sub @ +500, Orolbai in r3 @ +900 (.5u), most sig strikes -105

Abusipuyan Magomedov vs Brunno Ferreira: Abus Magomedov didn't ask to be included in a main event in his second UFC fight (full analysis here), but losing that fight to Sean Strickland and subsequent defeat to now top-ranked fighter Caio Borralho did sharp decline in its shares.

He may not be one of the candidates, but he is significantly better than “Hulk” Ferreira everywhere. Brunno has never fought longer than six minutes and eight seconds as a professional, so it shouldn't be difficult for anyone to guess my betting stakes for this fight.

Abus ML @ -142, Abus in r2 @ +550 (.75u), in r3 @ +725 (.5u)

Farid Basharat vs. Victor Hugo: Farid Basharat is a -800 favorite here, a position where his brother recently lost. However, Farid is the more talented Bash brother, and while he will have some success wrestling with Hugo, he is also a far better striker.

Barring an early finish, which he has only achieved once in the UFC, this should be easy; He averages 4.47 significant strikes per minute and over 40 significant strikes per fight. At this rate, he can stay in control for five full minutes without punches and still hit easily

Farid over 39.5 Sig Strikes @ -125 (2u)

Chris Barnett vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu: This fight is basically a meme, but Nzechukwu is a pathetic finisher based on his physicality and Barnett has yet to lose by finish in the UFC. I expect it to be a tepid kickboxing match for the most part. I'm just worried that the Barnett picks will lose with significant hits if Kennedy decides to wrestle from the start, which is where he'll likely succeed. Half unit bet on submission.

Barnett o20.5 Sig Strikes @ -150

Nzechukwu by sub @ +500 (.5u), over 0.5 takedowns @ +120

Carlos Leal vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov: You can find my full breakdown of the opening match of the UFC 308 prelim card here, but essentially I think Leal is underrated here and Rinat is still overrated. We expect a close decision with Leal having a good chance of winning. Even though the split decision bets are big odds, I'm betting a full unit on each of them on this card.

Leal ML @ +190, o44.5 Sig Strikes @ -115

The fight goes to split decision @ +375

Fakhretdinov u3.5 takedowns