The “most accurate economist in the world” predicts that Donald Trump will win the presidency and that Republicans will likely take full control of Congress on November 5th.

Christophe Barraud, chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, also says a Trump victory could boost the economy in the short term but could bring longer-term complications, especially given the rising deficit.

“Looking at various metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modeler predictions and financial markets, the most likely outcomes currently are: (1) #Trump win (2) #GOP runaway win,” Barraud wrote on X.

Barraud, 38, has been ranked by Bloomberg as the top economic forecaster for the U.S. economy in 11 of the last 12 years – earning him the nickname “the most accurate economist in the world.”

The French economist said all signs point to a Trump victory and a Republican takeover of the Senate, and while it may be harder for Republicans to gain control of the House of Representatives, as of now it appears they will be victorious.

But if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency, there will likely be a continuation of status quo split control of Congress, Barraud said in an interview with Business Insider.

If Trump wins and control of Congress splits between the parties for some reason, much of his domestic economic agenda would stall and he would likely focus on tariffs, something that will slow the U.S. economy in the long run and hinder global growth could expert added.

In what Barraud sees as the most likely scenario – a Republican victory in the White House and Congress – he then expects gross domestic product to rise between about 2.1% and 2.3% in 2025.

Regardless of who is in the White House, the U.S. economy will likely continue to hum, at least in the short term, Barraud said.

Still, a big potential risk with Trump is that he will cut taxes without the resources to pay for them, causing the deficit to explode, Barraud said.

He said he expects the 10-year Treasury yield to initially rise from about 4.29% to 4.5% under Trump. From there he expects the value to rise to around 5%.

Barraud believes that overall, a Trump White House would mean U.S. GDP would likely exceed most consensus forecasts, which expect growth of 2.6% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.

Recent polls generally show that the presidential race is currently close, although Trump is leading in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of national polls and battleground states.

The so-called “Nostradamus” historian Dr. Allan Lichtman, who has predicted nine of the past 10 elections, is betting that Harris will win.

Famed poll data guru Nate Silver has suggested that his gut feeling is telling him Trump will win. The election is just eight days away.