Trump extends his lead over Harris in the presidential chances

Kathleen William October 21, 2024

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has increased his betting lead over Democratic rival Kamala Harris as the 2024 race for the White House enters the home stretch.

Trump's lead comes after a series of canceled media interviews and a Univision town hall where he again hailed the Jan. 6 insurrection, calling it a “day of love” and repeating falsehoods about migrants in Springfield, Ohio, that led to violent threats.

Democrats have raised questions about Trump's age and behavior during his rallies, including at a town hall in Oaks, Pennsylvania, that was interrupted by medical emergencies in the audience. On Saturday, Trump focused on the male anatomy of the late golf legend Arnold Palmer during a speech in western Pennsylvania.

The Harris campaign said Trump was too old and unstable to remain in office, repeating calls that ultimately led to President Joe Biden dropping out of the race.

Trump's lead in the campaign, which US bookmakers are legally not allowed to take part in, is the largest since Harris entered the race at the end of July.

Presidential Betting Odds Schedule

Betting odds for the presidency as of October 21st

Bet 365

Donald Trump:-163
Kamala Harris: +130

via Covers.com

Bovada

Donald Trump: -160
Kamala Harris: +135

BetOnline

Donald Trump:-155
Kamala Harris: +135

Oddschecker

Donald Trump:-143
Kamala Harris: +150

Big bets raise questions in the prediction market

According to a Wall Street Journal report, four mystery accounts have made a total of $30 million in crypto bets on Trump's election victory in recent weeks, raising questions about a popular prediction market's rapid move toward a Trump victory.

Polymarket – a betting site often touted by billionaire Trump supporter Elon Musk – has gone from posting roughly equal odds of a Harris or Trump victory two weeks ago to putting odds at 62% for Trump and 38% for Harris .

The surge coincided with $30 million in Trump bets from four Polymarket accounts – redi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie. According to Arkham, a company that analyzes blockchain and crypto activity, each account was funded by deposits from the same US crypto exchange called Kraken.

Miguel Morel, founder of Arkham, told the WSJ: “There are good reasons to believe that they are the same entity.”

While neither illegal nor necessarily nefarious, the WSJ reported that some observers view the bets as part of an influence campaign to create buzz on social media and create the impression that Trump is ahead.

Election forecasting website FiveThirtyEight – which is based on a poll-based model – gave Trump a slight lead on Sunday, with a 52% chance compared to Harris' 48% chance of winning the election.

Guiltandivy

Guiltandivy

Trump extends his lead over Harris in the presidential chances

Presidential Betting Odds Schedule