TAMPA, Fla. – Tropical Storm Rafael formed Monday afternoon and is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of 4 p.m. Monday, the system was at 15.5N, 76.7W with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and moving north at 9 mph.

According to the NHC, Rafael is expected to pass near Jamaica, where a tropical storm warning is in effect, early Tuesday.

Landfall in western Cuba is expected on Wednesday, possibly as a Category 1 hurricane.

Will the storm impact Florida?

Once the storm reaches the Gulf, it is expected to weaken due to cooler water temperatures and increased wind shear.

Models show the storm remaining west of Florida, with FOX 13 meteorologist Dave Osterberg saying the Bay Area will see some rain and wind later this week.

“But that wind will be moving offshore,” Osterberg said. “That means there’s no storm surge or anything like that.”

Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to move through the Gulf and stay west of Florida.

Elsewhere in the tropics

The remnants of Patty are moving east-northeast across the Atlantic, with heavy rain expected in parts of Portugal and western Spain in the coming days.

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