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Traders see a good chance that the Fed will cut rates again in December and then leave them out in January
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Traders see a good chance that the Fed will cut rates again in December and then leave them out in January

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on November 7, 2024 in Washington, DC.

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty Images

Expectations of a rate cut in December remained high after the Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point in November, but market prices suggest an “exit” is likely to occur in January.

On Thursday afternoon, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate – which determines how much banks charge each other for overnight loans – to a target range of 4.5% to 4.75%.

Before the Fed released that decision at 2 p.m. Eastern time, market prices suggested a 67% chance of another quarter-point cut in December and a 33% chance of a pause this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The probability of a quarter-point rate cut in December rose to over 70% after the meeting, while the probability of a pause fell to almost 29%. The future interest rate probabilities found in the CME FedWatch tool are derived from trading in 30-day Fed Funds futures contracts.

Meanwhile, the probability that the Federal Reserve would forego a rate cut in January was about 71%. That figure was slightly above the 67% level before the Fed's November decision was released on Thursday afternoon.

—CNBC's Jeff Cox contributed to this report.

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