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    • The probability of the Caribbean system developing is 80%. Here's Polk's prediction
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    The probability of the Caribbean system developing is 80%. Here's Polk's prediction

    Kathleen William Posted on

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    A tropical depression is likely to form next week, with the gradual development of a system continuing to brew in the Caribbean.

    National Hurricane Center forecasters say there is an 80% chance of a widespread low pressure system developing over the southwest Caribbean Sea over the next seven days. A system further east, near Puerto Rico, is moving east and could produce thunderstorms over the Greater Antilles before being absorbed by another system.

    There is now another named storm far away from Florida. Subtropical Storm Patty formed west of the Azores on Saturday morning.

    What does this all mean for the shores of the United States? There are many cases, and hurricanes in November remain rare.

    “The most reliable forecasts indicate that the western flank of this controlling high pressure still extends across the Gulf, allowing a potential storm to move west or northwest into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico,” said Ryan Truchalat, meteorologist and owner of Weathertiger, who The USA TODAY Network provides reports for.

    “Some members of the model ensemble have a faster and stronger frontal passage, in which case a storm could theoretically turn northeast toward Florida near the Yucatan or Cuba late next week or the following weekend.”

    In short, everything is clear for Florida and the USA this weekend, but stay aware of the situation.

    ➤ Track all active storms

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    The next name storms are Rafael and Sara.

    Will it rain when I vote? Here is Florida's weather forecast for Election Day

    Here are details about what's available starting November 2nd at 8 a.m.:

    Where is Subtropical Storm Patty? Is a hurricane heading toward Florida?

    Location: .39.9N, 34.4W about 420 miles west-northwest of the AzoresMaximum continuous winds: 50 miles per hourCurrent movement: East-southeast at 7 mphMinimum central pressure: 986MB

    The center of subtropical storm Patty was located near latitude 39.9 north and longitude 34.4 west. The storm is moving east-southeast at approximately 11 km/h. A faster east-southeast movement is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the east and east-northeast on Sunday and Monday.

    Maximum sustained winds will be around 50 miles per hour, with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected today, but gradual weakening is forecast through early next week. Patty could become a post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday. Winds of 40 miles per hour extend up to 205 miles from the center.

    Dangers for properties:

    WIND: Tropical storms are possible in parts of the Azores this weekend.

    AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches in the Azores through Sunday.

    SURFING: The waves generated by Patty will impact the Azores in the next few days. These waves can create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

    November brings tropical development closer to Florida, USA

    Since 1851, three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida in November.

    While tropical waves typically appear off the African coast in the months leading up to the Atlantic hurricane season, giving people plenty of notice as they move across the Atlantic, this is not the case in the final month of the season.

    “As November begins, the focus of tropical development shifts closer to the United States. “Typically the focus towards the end of the season is in the Caribbean and off the southeast coast,” said DaSilva.

    A tropical depression could form in the Caribbean later this week

    Southwest Caribbean Sea: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean are associated with an extensive low pressure area.

    This system is expected to develop gradually and a tropical depression is expected to form over the next few days as the system moves generally north-northwest over the central and western Caribbean Sea.

    Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible in parts of the adjacent land areas of the Western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba. Western Caribbean stakeholders should monitor the progress of this system.

    • Chance of education within 48 hours: medium, 60 percent.
    • Chance of development over 7 days: high, 80 percent.

    What is the forecast for Polk County?

    After weeks of pleasantly dry weather, rain chances are increasing in Polk County this week. There will be 30% of scattered showers on Saturday and 50% on Wednesday. Here's the full forecast from the National Weather Service in Tampa.

    Saturday: 30% chance of rain, mostly after 5 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. East northeast wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

    Saturday evening: Chance of showers before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Northeast wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. The chance of precipitation is 30%.

    Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. East-northeast wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

    Sunday evening: Mostly clear, with a low around 68. East northeast wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

    Monday: Sunny, with a high near 84. Windy, with an east wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

    Monday evening: Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. East wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

    Tuesday: 20% chance of rain after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Windy, with an east wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

    Tuesday evening: A 20% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. East wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

    Wednesday: Slight chance of showers, then a risk of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Windy, with an east wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. The chance of precipitation is 50%.

    Wednesday evening: Showers and thunderstorms are possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

    What else is there and how likely are they to intensify?

    Near the Greater Antilles: A large area of ​​disorganized showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds extending several hundred miles northeast from near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola are associated with a trough of low pressure.

    It is possible that this system will develop slowly over the next few days as it moves west-northwest near the Greater Antilles.

    This system is expected to enter the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea early next week. Regardless of developments, locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas over the next few days.

    • Chance of emergence within 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
    • Chance of occurrence over 7 days: low, 10 percent.

    North Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization near a low pressure system located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Azores.

    Environmental conditions could allow further development today and tonight, and the system could develop into a short-lived subtropical or tropical storm moving east-southeast at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Winds at higher elevations are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by the end of the weekend.

    Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system.

    • Chance of education within 48 hours: medium, 60 percent.
    • Educational opportunity over 7 days: medium, 60 percent.

    Who is likely to be affected?

    Waters in the Caribbean remain warm enough to support tropical development, AccuWeather forecasters said Saturday morning.

    Disturbing breezes, known as wind shear, also remain low in the region.

    “At this point, the most likely broad zone for tropical development would be over the western and central Caribbean, and the time frame for development would be Saturday through Tuesday,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. “It's possible. The trait could initially evolve somewhere near the large northern islands of the Caribbean – possibly Jamaica.”

    Weather warnings and warnings are issued in Florida

    Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via SMS

    When is Atlantic hurricane season?

    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

    The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

    Countdown Clock: When does hurricane season end?

    Interactive map: Hurricanes and tropical storms that passed near your city

    What's next?

    We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local website's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.

    (This story has been updated to add new information.)

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    Kathleen William
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