ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) – Early election results suggest the 17-member bipartisan Senate majority could be shaken up next session and the three-member conservative-leaning Senate minority will have a louder voice.

In the race for a Senate seat that Fairbanks Republican Sen. Click Bishop held before retiring, former House Rep. Mike Cronk, R-Tok, leads Savannah Fletcher by a little less than 1,800 votes.

While Cronk has received 52% of the vote so far in the three-person race, the other candidate is Alaska Independence Party candidate Robert “Bert” Williams with 954 votes. For Fletcher, the math probably isn't enough to make this a race – of the 15,526 votes cast, 14,949 were counted.

If three or more candidates enter a race and none have more than 50% of the vote, ranked-choice voting triggers an automatic runoff election that will be held later in the month before a final winner is announced.

In the House, Cronk was a member of the conservative-leaning House majority, which disagreed with the more moderate Senate majority on issues such as education, entitlement and PFD.

In another Senate race, incumbent Sen. David Wilson, R-Wasilla, appears on track to lose by more than 3,000 votes to his Republican challenger and former Mat-Su County Councilman Robert Yundt. As with Fletcher, Wilson probably doesn't have enough outstanding votes to make up the deficit.

In the three-person race with a third Republican challenger, Stephen Wright, Yundt has 53% of the vote.

Wilson caucused with the Senate majority, but it is unlikely Yundt would do so because his ideology is more in line with the conservative Senate minority, which includes Sens. Shelley Hughes, R-Palmer, Mike Shower, R-Wasilla and Robert Myers. R-North Pole.

According to his candidate profile, Yundt stands for defending parental rights, protecting women's sports and cutting government spending to fund a full statutory PFD.

In Eagle River, a race that could change due to the impact of ranked-choice voting, incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Merrick has 46.5% of the vote against Republican challenger Jared Goecker, who has 40.4%. The Democratic candidate Lee Hammermeister has 12.8%.

Merrick has a lead of less than 1,000 votes with votes still to be counted, but in a ranked-choice runoff, Hammermeister's votes would likely swing in Merrick's favor.

The incumbent is a member of the Senate majority, and Goecker has criticized Merrick for not being conservative enough. Goecker has said that if elected, he would not join the Senate majority as currently constituted.

In Fairbanks, Democratic Senator Scott Kawasaki is ahead of Republican challenger Leslie Hajdukovich by just 74 votes, with ballots still to be counted. Of the 9,594 votes cast, 9,411 were counted.

In Nikiski, incumbent Sen. Jesse Bjorkman has 47.8% to conservative Republican Rep. Ben Carpenter, who has 41.1%. Democratic candidate Tina Wegener has 10.8%, and her voters are also likely to favor Björkman in ranked-choice voting.

Both Bjorkman and Kawasaki are members of the Senate majority. Like Cronk, Carpenter was a member of the House majority.

If Cronk and Yundt joined the three-member Senate Republican minority, the minority would have at least five members to secure seats on Senate committees.

As early as September, however, Hughes said that she did not want to be satisfied with a recognized Senate minority, but wanted to see whether it was possible to shape the Senate majority in a center-right manner.

“For several years, voters, by electing Republican majorities in both the House and Senate, have been saying that the state as a whole would like to see a right-of-center Legislature — not far right, but right of center,” Hughes said in September.

State House

Over in the House, the 23 members of the conservative-leaning House majority and the 16 members of the more moderate House minority, as well as the one member not attending the caucus, noticed some changes.

Over in House District 9 (Anchorage Hillside), nonpartisan candidate Ky Holland has 53% of the vote, ahead of Republican challenger Lucy Bauer, who has 46%. At this point, there probably aren't enough votes for Bauer to make up the deficit.

The seat was previously held by Republican Laddie Shaw, who resigned at the end of the session. Shaw was a member of the House majority, and Holland said his ideology did not fit the House majority as currently constituted.

In another race where a seat could go to the House minority, Anchorage Democrat Ted Eischeid is leading Republican Stanley Wright, but it's a tight race with Eischeid leading by just over 100 votes top and many more still need to be counted.

In District 10 (Oceanview), House Speaker Craig Johnson, R-Anchorage, trails fellow Republican Chuck Kopp, who has 61% of the vote.

Although Kopp said he would prefer to meet with members who share his conservative values, he ultimately said he was not in favor of prioritizing the party over sound policy, something he criticized Johnson for. Kopp questioned Johnson's position on defined benefits and education.

In another tight race with many votes still to be counted, Republican Jubilee Underwood is ahead of incumbent Republican Rep. David Eastman by just over 200 votes.

Eastman is the only non-voting member of the state Legislature who did not have a committee assignment last session and was criticized by his fellow Republicans for being disruptive during the amendment process.

Back in April, Underwood said that the “noise” surrounding Eastman led to her decision to run against him.

The deadline to receive mail-in ballots from the U.S. and U.S. territories is November 15th.

The deadline for voting abroad is November 20th.

Additionally, ranked-choice voting will be conducted on November 20th before a final winner is announced.

The target date for certifying the general election is November 30th.

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