When we see a hurricane in the Gulf, the entire Gulf Coast usually holds its breath. However, there is no fear in Rafael at the moment, as all signs point to the storm continuing into the Gulf next week and possibly not making landfall at all.

However, Rafael is still worth a look. Here's why:

If the storm continues west of the Yucatan Peninsula as a hurricane, it would be the only November hurricane since 1851.

Hurricane Jeanne in 1980 is the only November hurricane to at least partially resemble Rafael's prediction. Jeanne reached the Gulf of Mexico and then quickly increased to Category 2 strength in the southern Gulf.

“Like Rafael, Jeanne was steered westward in the Gulf by upper high pressure to the north, but then lost the atmospheric steering wheel and slowed down,” said Weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Erdman.

By the time Jeanne traveled west of the Yucatan Peninsula, the storm had weakened to a tropical storm. Eventually, a cold front and dry air led to Jeanne's final death.

(For even more detailed weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute detailed forecast in our Premium Pro Experience.)

Why Rafael's track is so rare

Of only six other hurricanes in the Gulf region in November, five occurred in the eastern Gulf.

“Typically we don't have storms in the western Gulf in November because the jet stream typically strengthens over the southern U.S. and most of the Gulf,” Erdman said. “This stronger jet typically either pushes November storms toward Florida, the Caribbean, or tears them apart.”

Of the 287 hurricanes that made landfall on the U.S. mainland in the NOAA database, only four did so in November. Hurricane Nicole last hit Florida in 2022 as a late-season Category 1 hurricane.

However, cold fronts typically don't reach all of Florida in November, which creates opportunities in the Sunshine State. That's why Florida is the most likely landfall location if a storm forms or moves into the Gulf of Mexico in November.

What does Rafael control?

Rafael's future track is becoming more interesting every day. It is expected to weaken and slow down. Meanwhile, another ridge of high pressure could form to the west or northwest, which would help pull it southwest into early next week.

“If it survives the dry air, it could move through the southwesterly push into an area of ​​lower wind shear, meaning it could survive in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico well into next week,” Erdman explained. Adding, “A November storm this far southwest in the Gulf of Mexico would be unprecedented in the mid-19th century historical database.”

Typical impact zones for November storms

In the satellite era—since 1966—November has, on average, produced a storm every 1 to 2 years and a hurricane every 2 to 3 years.

More commonly, parts of the Caribbean and Central America were hit hard by hurricanes in November.

When a storm develops in November, it usually occurs in the western Caribbean Sea or the southwest or central Atlantic. This is because environmental factors are more suitable for development. Wind shear is usually pretty low, cold fronts usually haven't made it that far south yet, and water temperatures are still pretty warm. All of these factors can contribute to storm formation.

But as we saw with Rafael, hurricane season doesn't always play by the rules – anything is possible.

Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for Weather.com. She has been reporting on some of the world's biggest weather and climate stories for two decades.