An emerging weather disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean is looking increasingly likely to develop into at least a tropical depression soon, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The prospects for an area in the southwest Caribbean Sea.
(FOX Weather)

---

The system, now designated Invest 97L by the NHC, was still just a group of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea late Saturday morning.

However, gradual development is expected over the weekend and a tropical depression is expected to form over the next few days as the system moves over the central and western Caribbean, according to the NHC. Three Hurricane Hunter flights are scheduled in 97L on Sunday and Monday.

What is an “investment”?

With a subtropical system in the North Atlantic named Patty early Saturday morning, Rafael is the next name on the 2024 Atlantic list should this Caribbean disturbance reach tropical storm strength.

“The general consensus in the computer forecast model predictions is that the system will be at or near tropical storm strength when it reaches the southern Gulf on Wednesday or Thursday,” said Bryan Norcross, FOX weather hurricane specialist. “A dense cloud of tropical moisture is expected to rotate northward with the potential storm. This will increase the risk of flooding in Caribbean islands west of Puerto Rico starting Monday. Some of the moisture could reach South Florida by midweek.”

But Norcross says once the system is in the Gulf, the forecast becomes fuzzy as weaker steering currents make the forecast more uncertain.

“If the system remains relatively weak, it is more likely to drift westward, perhaps toward the Mexican coast,” Norcross said. “However, if it is on the stronger side, it could continue north toward part of the U.S. Gulf Coast.”

However, if the storm attempts to approach the US, it could still encounter hostile atmospheric conditions as there is a lot of dry air in the Gulf of Mexico and an unfavorable wind pattern in the upper elevations.

“Even if it were possible – Rafael could strengthen in the southern Gulf, a severe storm on the coast based on what we know now – is unlikely,” Norcross said, adding whether the system should ever reach the coast depends Current schedule, that would happen next weekend or so.

“Of course, we will be watching the tropics for another week, although the likelihood of a major storm hitting the U.S. appears to be low,” he said. “Of course, forecasts for a week are always fuzzy, so stay tuned.”

BRYAN NORCROSS: The forecast consensus shows a tropical system approaching the Gulf next week

Another disturbance in the northeast Caribbean Sea may connect with 97L

The NHC is also monitoring a low pressure area in the northeast Caribbean Sea, but the likelihood of this system developing over the next week is low.

An area to watch in the Caribbean Sea is moving north-northwest in the coming days.
(FOX Weather)

---

“Some heavy tropical rainfall will impact the northeastern Caribbean islands over the next few days as the system moves westward,” Norcross said. “Next week it will likely be absorbed by the developing unrest in the Caribbean.”

The National Hurricane Center expects this system to become a tropical depression in the next few days. Even if that were to happen, it wouldn't change the weather forecast, Norcross said.

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

North Atlantic: Welcome to Subtropical Storm Patty

A strong storm developed into subtropical Storm Patty in the North Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center said Saturday morning.

Subtropical Storm Patty.
(FOX Weather)

---

Patty had sustained winds of 65 mph and was located about 300 miles west/northwest of the Azores, the NHC said.

The storm, previously named Invest 96L, is expected to maintain its current strength on Saturday and then gradually weaken on Sunday, possibly becoming a post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday, the NHC said.

The remnants of the storm could finally reach Portugal and western Spain early next week.