PHOENIX – Polls in Arizona conducted a week before Election Day show the presidential race is a tie and the race for U.S. Senate is getting tighter.

Republican Donald Trump has a narrow lead of 48% to 47% over Democrat Kamala Harris in the race for the 11 electoral votes in the Grand Canyon State. This is according to results released by Phoenix-based polling firm Noble Predictive Insights on Thursday, five days before the 2024 general election (NPI).

Meanwhile, Democrat Ruben Gallego saw his lead over Republican Kari Lake shrink to 48% to 44%.

NPI also asked respondents about Proposition 139, which would expand abortion rights in Arizona. The results suggest the measure is on track for passage: 57% yes versus 33% no.

“This is a classic wedge problem,” NPI research director David Byler said in a press release. “Democrats are united. Independents lean strongly toward pro-choice. And Republicans are divided.”

Trump's lead is within the margin of error in Arizona polls

The poll of likely Arizona voters was conducted Monday through Wednesday, just before the current vice president and former president appeared at events in the Valley on Thursday, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%. Trump's 1 percentage point lead is well within the margin of error, and Gallego's 4 point lead is just above it.

“Lake has always had two problems. “Republicans trust her less than Trump and a small group of independents who are willing to vote for Trump and Gallego,” Mike Noble, NPI founder and CEO, said in the press release.

Lake appeared confident as she performed KTAR News 92.3 FM's The Mike Broomhead Show on Wednesday and said her internal polls showed her ahead.

“I think our internal polling is accurate, it really is,” she said.

Outside polls have shown Gallego's lead has shrunk since the July primary. He led Lake by 10 percentage points in the NPI Arizona poll in May and by 7 percentage points in August.

“Since Trump voters returned to Lake, the gap has narrowed — but there is still a gap. If Trump wins in the final stretch and exceeds his poll numbers, he could pull Lake over the finish line. But our data shows the most likely outcome is a split decision in favor of Trump and Gallego,” Noble said.

As of Friday morning, polling averages compiled by RealClearPolitics showed Trump with a 2.3-point lead in the Senate race, over Harris in Arizona and Gallego with a 3.9-point lead.

Another poll-aggregating site, FiveThirtyEight, showed Trump leading in Arizona by 2.3 points and Gallego ahead by a comfortable 5.9 points.

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