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The best playoff scenario for the Alabama Crimson Tide does not include Atlanta
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The best playoff scenario for the Alabama Crimson Tide does not include Atlanta

There's no escaping the fact that the Alabama Crimson Tide have played three games where they didn't look like a CFB playoff contender. The entire focus of the Alabama Football team and staff must be on returning to previous form and defeating Missouri. Two of the three remaining Tigers on the schedule are capable of beating the Alabama team that lost to Vandy and Tennessee and struggled against South Carolina. The Oklahoma game in Norman is also not a lockdown.

On Monday, Kane Wommack shared what he told the defensive players about moving forward: “…we should just be clear about what we need to do to beat Missouri on Saturday. Anything beyond that is a distraction.” The bottom line for the entire squad shouldn't be a “what if” about the past or the future.

With Bama's back against the playoff wall, Alabama Crimson Tide fans have a variety of “what if” questions to ponder about their playoff chances. On Tuesday evening, November 5th, we'll find out how the CFB Playoff Selection Committee rates the Crimson Tide. With a win over Missouri, Alabama will be 6-2.

Of course, Alabama now has to top the regular season standings. That's a tall order given Alabama's recent performance, but it's doable. There are some reasons for optimism. According to ESPN Analytics, Alabama is still more likely to win its remaining regular season games. The LSU Bengal Tigers are ahead of Alabama in the traditional polls (No. 7 Coaches and No. 8 AP), but ESPN projects Alabama to have a 61.9% chance of beating LSU. ESPN predictions are higher for Bama's other games; 82.8% vs. Missouri; 77.6% against Oklahoma and 88.7% against Auburn in the Iron Bowl.

It's also telling that Alabama is the top-ranked two-loss team in the traditional polls and ESPN's FPI. At least with FPI and hopefully with the CFB Playoff Selection Committee, strength of schedule is important. Alabama has the best win streak in college football. With Vanderbilt now ranked 25th in both polls, the Crimson Tide no longer has the worst loss.

A new big question is how many SEC teams will make the playoffs. Current estimates are between two and four. With four SEC playoff teams, a 10-2 Crimson Tide would have a good chance. It shouldn't require Alabama to win the SEC championship game to make the playoffs. If that perspective holds true, it's possible that a push to Atlanta with the risk of defeat might not be the best thing for the Crimson Tide.

Finally, I would like to say that the SEC Championships continue to be important achievements for me. Alabama getting a win in December would be great. Losing in Atlanta and potentially missing the playoff field would be a huge disappointment.

Next. DeBoer is the right coach for the future, but not now. Kalen DeBoer is the right coach for the future, but not for Alabama right now. dark

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