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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

Game overview

Week 9 begins with a matchup between two teams navigating difficult waters in the second half of the year.

The New York Jets face another primetime matchup, looking for answers as they slide straight up and against the spread through five games. Primetime games have been particularly challenging for this team, as they have only played one of their four games in the spotlight, with their only win coming at home against the Patriots in Week 3.

New York's offensive problems have been mounting for a long time, with metrics looking particularly poor during the losing streak. Since Week 4, the Jets have ranked in the bottom third of the NFL in overall offensive team grade (69.2) and expected points per game.

Slow starts have plagued the team, which has some of the league's worst offensive metrics in the first quarter, including EPA per game (31st), yards per game (28th), turnovers (last) and winning play percentage (28th). . And despite his overall solid grade profile, quarterback Aaron Rodgers bears responsibility for these problems and ranks last among the qualified pass participants in the first quarter passing grade (46.5).

Conversely, the Houston Texans managed a turnaround against the spread in October, posting a 3-1 record after losing every spread in September. Given the Texans' current struggles, they have also managed to secure a lead under the total points in all but two of their meetings this season.

Injuries have hit Houston's offense hard lately Nico Collins have been taking a break since week 5 and Stefon Diggs Last week I had to cancel the entire year after tearing my ACL. This leaves the offense stuck in the rebounding game while the attention shifts to them Tank Dell And Dalton Schultz to bear the burden.

Fortunately, the Texans' defense has taken the pressure off the offense and put games within reach each week thanks to a solid pass rush. Over the last three games, Houston's pass rush has generated the second-most pressures (67) and recorded the third-highest knockdown rate (19.5%) in the NFL.

RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans: Over 20.5 carries (-108) – 1.9% advantage

Since Nico Collins While Houston's offense took a dip in Week 5, it posted a top-10 run play percentage (42.8%). Injuries to the receiving corps are only getting worse, so look for the offense to rely even more heavily on the running game.

Input Joe Mixon, who is one of the most effective defenders in the league. Although Mixon went down early in Week 2 and missed the following three games, he still managed to gain over 100 yards on the ground in every game he finished. Part of this performance can be attributed to his considerable usage success, as he recorded 25 or more appearances in three of his four appearances completed.

Attacking the Jets defense on the ground continues to be a strong approach for opposing offenses, with New York having the sixth-highest rate of run plays (46.0%). In the eight games this season they have suffered 23 or more attempts from behind in all but one game.

Since the Texans backfield doesn't see much of Mixon's vulture carries, this is a strong bet.