Heavyweights

#15 HW | Rodrigo Nascimento (11-2, 4-2 UFC) vs. #13 HW | Alexander Romanov (17-3, 6-3 UFC)

OPPORTUNITIES: Nascimento (-112), Romanov (-108)

The UFC's heavyweight division needs to be resolved beyond a certain point, and this fight aims to do just that. When Nascimento was tasked with a headlining card against Derrick Lewis earlier this year, it was a bit difficult, but “Ze Colmeia” had at least earned the spot with a few years of solid but unspectacular work. Nascimento's calling card during his rise has been surprisingly solid grappling, even if getting there has often been an adventure. Nascimento's wrestling has been lacking even against lower-level competition, and in recent years he has often eschewed that approach to focus on developing a decent – if not particularly powerful – striking game. However, none of this really prepared him for Lewis. Nascimento at least did the smart thing and fought with a wrestling-focused approach, but he eventually tired out and was knocked out in the third round. Now comes the attempt to bounce back against Romanov, although it's hard to say what to expect from either man.

Romanov was an intriguing prospect when he entered the UFC in 2020. It was easy to write him off considering his regional record was of physically overpowering mediocre competitors on the Moldovan scene, but he showed some potential as a massive individual with the ability to wrestle and a solid gas tank, together with a sneaky athleticism. Romanov won his first five UFC fights with few difficult moments – although his gas tank seemed to be flagging against opponents who could match his wrestling – before suffering a loss to Marcin Tybura in 2022 that appears to have completely broken him. Both men were already fighting a tough fight as heavyweights on the hill in Salt Lake City, and even after a dominant first round, Romanov reached a level of exhaustion that few in the UFC had ever achieved, forcing him to drop out of the rest of the fight and lose Decision. Romanov was in particularly poor form, both in terms of appearance and performance, against Alexander Volkov a few months later, and he has generally given up whenever his opponents have managed to outdo or overtake him in their fights since. A win over Blagoy Ivanov in July 2023 remains some hope for optimism, as Romanov somehow managed to put together three solid rounds without going off track. This could really go either way, as Nascimento could make Romanov immediately submit with some wrestling-heavy pressure, but has also shown subpar takedown defense himself when pressured. If Nascimento takes a more patient approach, it could give Romanov a chance to gain some early momentum. Nascimento ultimately leaned on his wrestling against Lewis, although there are fears it was more of a specific adjustment given his clear knockout threat. In general, most of Nascimento's recent performances have been of the sort that suggests Romanov could find a way to win this fight. It feels a bit like a flyer, but the advantage is that the Moldovan can achieve early success without collapsing down the stretch, even if that could be ugly. The choice rests with Romanov by decision.

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