Middleweight

Abusupiyan Magomedov (26-6-1, 2-2 UFC) vs. Brunno Ferreira (12-1, 3-1 UFC)

OPPORTUNITIES: Magomedov (-142), Ferreira (+120)

When Magomedov was nominated for the main event against Sean Strickland in 2023, it wasn't a particularly deserving spot, as his UFC career up to that point had consisted solely of a 19-second knockout of Dustin Stoltzfus. However, it was logical to immediately throw Magomedov into the fire. With more than a decade of experience under his belt, he was certainly at the point where it made sense to see if he could pass as a contender. Magomedov fell short there, but otherwise he was a solid midfielder before and after, peaking early in his fights. Magomedov is a big middleweight who finds his feet quickly, and he has achieved most of his success by quickly catching his opponents off guard. If it goes beyond one round, Magomedov doesn't necessarily implode; Rather, he runs out of ideas and stops surprising his opponents, allowing them to engage in a much more even fight. Magomedov's last fight, a victory over Warlley Alves in May, was a clear example of this, as he was able to outlast another top contender thanks to solid but unspectacular wrestling play. That's the likely path to victory here against Brazil's Ferreira, who has proven to be a dangerous fighter during his four UFC fights.

Ferreira's game consists almost entirely of powerful punches, but when he broke through with a UFC debut win over Gregory Rodrigues, he proved he can take on almost anyone in the middleweight division. Unfortunately, his UFC second fight against Nursulton Ruziboev showed he was capable of knocking himself out, although he has since rebounded with two more knockout victories that have directly benefited him. While both men are at their best, this should be a coin toss for a few minutes, but in the long run Magomedov seems to be the safer choice. If he can't literally beat the Brazilian, Ferreira's wrestling looks particularly poor, so he should have no trouble getting a win. The choice falls to Magomedov by decision.

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