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President betting odds from Smarkets, 538, Betfair and more
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President betting odds from Smarkets, 538, Betfair and more

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Donald Trump still leads, but Kamala Harris is making her move.

At least that's what the betting odds data from Real Clear Polling says.

RCP has Trump as the favorite 58.3 to 40.3, which is still significant. But it's not as high as yesterday, when it was over 61 percent.

The situation is also getting worse in all markets.

BetOnline has Trump ahead 58% to 42%. Betfair has odds of 57-42, Betsson, Bovada and Bwin have odds of 60-40. Polymarket has it 56-40. Smarkets has it 57-40.

Every market still has Trump favorites, but Harris has gained ground with every bookmaker.

Harris has an advantage with PredictIt. Harris is the favorite 51-49 percent.

These numbers will change as they apply throughout the election season.

Over the summer, Trump was considered the heavy favorite over President Joe Biden, but Democrats reversed course and nominated Vice President Harris to run against former President Trump. Harris took the lead shortly after receiving the nomination and held that lead for about a month. But since the beginning of October, Trump has been ahead on the betting markets.

While the betting odds suggest Trump has a clear favorite, the polls do not.

ABC News has Harris leading 48-46.8, and 270towin also shows Harris with a small lead heading into the weekend before the election.

Bettors rate Trump's probability of winning higher than in previous elections

Trump's probability of victory is now just a few percentage points below the high the campaign reached on the opening day of the Republican National Convention. As of July 16, his odds of defeating Biden were over 70% on Polymarket and Betfair Exchange.

According to a 2004 article in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, the clear betting favorite only lost twice in the month before the election, in 1916 and 1948. Betting markets also failed to predict Trump's victory in 2016.

-Jim Sergent

Big money bet on the election

Although it was previously banned in the United States, Americans legally bet more than $100 million on this election, according to NPR.

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