Kamala Harris and Donald Trump (AP Photo)

As Election Day begins in the United States on November 5, tens of millions of Americans have already cast their ballots, with record numbers of early voting in battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina.
In Georgia alone – where voters switched between Republican and Democratic candidates in the last two presidential elections – over 4 million ballots were cast early, leading a top official to suggest there could be unusually low voter turnout on Election Day itself.
On Monday, the Associated Press reported about 82 million early votes nationwide, just over half of the total turnout in the 2020 presidential election.
This data provides insight into early voting patterns but does not predict the outcome because it does not show voter decisions or include those voting today.

Here are three key takeaways about early voting trends:

Low voter turnout compared to the 2020 election year

Nationwide, voter turnout is down this year compared to the pandemic-hit 2020 election. In this election, more than 110 million Americans – about 70% of all voters – cast their votes before Election Day, either in person or by mail.
This year, primary day voting is expected to account for nearly 50% of the total vote, reflecting a similar shift to the 2022 midterm elections, CNN reports.
While early voting is down overall, some states saw an increase in early in-person voting compared to 2020. Key battlegrounds like North Carolina and Georgia saw high early in-person voter turnout, with Georgia surpassing its 2020 numbers. However, total early voting in North Carolina fell below 2020 levels as fewer people voted by mail.

The Republican vote share ahead of the election is increasing compared to polls in 2020

Republicans have increased their share of the primary vote compared to 2020, with the Trump campaign actively promoting early voting and mail-in voting this year – a shift from its previous stance discouraging primary voting.
According to Catalist data from 27 states, registered Democrats cast 37% of early ballots while registered Republicans cast 35%, significantly narrowing the partisan gap. In 2020, Democrats held a 12-point lead in these same states at this point, with 42% of early ballots coming from Democrats versus 30% from Republicans.
Although a larger share of Republicans are voting early compared to 2020, recent CNN polls suggest Vice President Kamala Harris is leading among early voters, including in all battleground states except Nevada.

Narrowing the gender gap in early voting: Women still outperform men

In the seven most competitive states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – the gender gap in early voting is similar to that seen in the 2020 and 2022 elections. According to data from Catalist, in these states about 1, 8 million more women than men voted early.
However, this gap is smaller than at the same time in 2020, due in part to lower overall early voting turnout and a slightly smaller percentage difference between male and female voters.