The Oklahoma Sooners will be looking to keep the wagon from tipping over when they take on the Mississippi Rebels today. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 p.m. ET at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford and will be broadcast on ESPN.

The Sooners aren't enjoying life in the SEC, are just 1-3 in conference play and are struggling to find answers on offense, and my Oklahoma vs. Mississippi predictions have them against a Rebels team, who had a week to play, will have trouble early on because he blew a late lead against LSU.

Read on to learn why I think the Lane Train will waste no time getting back to .500 in conference play as I break down one of my favorite college football picks for Saturday, October 26th .

Oklahoma vs. Mississippi Prediction and Best Bet

My best choice
Mississippi -10.5 1H (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

When I watch the Oklahoma Sooners, I often think of a revolving door.

Jackson Arnold began the season at quarterback before making way for Michael Hawkins Jr. in the middle of the loss to Tennessee. Hawkins came in and moved the ball well and everyone loved it! And then… well… he kind of looked exactly like Arnold and consistently threw for about 140 to 160 yards per game.

Until last week, when he was benched after giving up the football on each of his first three drives. And so Arnold returned, threw for 225 yards — many of them in garbage time — and reclaimed the starting position. But he'll be taking over plays from someone other than Seth Littrell, who was fired after the Sooners scored just nine points against South Carolina.

But perhaps the reason I see revolving doors is because Oklahoma's offensive line most closely resembles this one. That was one of the main reasons I picked South Carolina to upset the Sooners last week, and they were even worse than I expected. Oklahoma's front line posted the second-worst PFF pass protection grade of the season with a pitiful 48.0 and also the second-worst run-blocking grade.

It doesn't matter who takes the snaps or calls the plays if your offense allows a sack every eight times the quarterback drops back to pass. The Sooners are also allowing 9.75 tackles per game in SEC play, which is the fifth-most of any team in their conference play.

The Mississippi Rebels rank third in EPA/Rush, second in Early Down EPA/Play and force the longest average distance on third downs to win at 8.95 yards. SEC opponents rush for just 2.88 yards per carry against Mississippi's front seven, which has a havoc rate of 15% and a sack rate of 8.1%.

Oklahoma's defense has kept them in games at times this season, but they can only do much when thrown back onto the field after short periods of rest and defending short fields. And while they withstand the run, the Sooner secondary has some issues.

A stellar pass rush has masked some of the cracks, but the Sooners have collected 19 passes for 20 yards in four SEC games. The Gamecocks had four of them last week, quite a few from a passing attack that isn't considered productive. Mississippi ranks 15th in EPA/pass, and if the Sooner pass rush doesn't take off, Jaxson Dart will make them pay.

Lane Kiffin's offense has 13 such plays in three SEC games, and he has one of the most dangerous receivers in the country in Tre Harris. Add to that the fact that he had a week to come up with a plan to stop OU's pass rush and get the ball into the hands of his playmakers, and I wouldn't be shocked to see OU's defense Sooner looks like she's going around in circles as well.

Assume the Rebels jump out early and lead 11+ at halftime.

Oklahoma vs. Mississippi, Match Game Parlay (SGP)

Mississippi -10.5 1H

Tre Harris receiving over 100 yards

Oklahoma team under 13.5 overall

Texas receiver Gunnar Helm caught five passes for 91 yards against the Sooners. Tennessee's Bru McCoy threw four passes for 92 yards, while Dont'e Thornton needed just two catches to rush for 73 yards.

The Sooners will try to attack Harris, but he is frequently targeted. He's averaging 119.6 yards per game in SEC play and will again top the 100 mark if he catches at least six passes.

Maybe the Sooners can find some ways to put together some drives later in the game when the game is over, but I'm not sure how important that will be. Mississippi allows just 2.2 points per opportunity, ranks fifth in red zone scoring defense and its three SEC opponents have scored just 27 points in eight visits inside the 20-yard line.

The Rebels are vulnerable to the deep ball, but Oklahoma won't be able to give Arnold time to find anything downfield. The Sooners will fail to reach 14 points for the third straight game.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oklahoma vs Mississippi odds

Oklahoma vs Mississippi live odds

Opening odds for Oklahoma vs. Mississippi

• Oklahoma vs. Mississippi spread: Mississippi -6.5
• Money line Oklahoma vs. Mississippi: Oklahoma +950, ​​Mississippi -2,000
• Oklahoma vs. Mississippi Over/Under: 47.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Oklahoma vs. Mississippi distribution and over/under analysis

• The spread for this game started at 18.5 and quickly increased by two points to settle at 20.5 on Sunday, where it remained all week. Oklahoma is 1-3 ATS in SEC play, including not coming close to +17 coverage against Texas. Mississippi is 1-2 ATS and has lost twice as a favorite to Kentucky and LSU.
• Oklahoma is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 games and has covered the first-half spread just once in its last four road games.
• In contrast to the spread, there was movement in the total. After an opening level of 47.5 on Sunday, there was an increase to 49.5 on Thursday evening.
• Over bettors are suffering from the inflated market numbers on Mississippi as the under is 6-0 for the Rebels in their last six games. However, the first half of the over was profitable for the Oklahoma road game, cashing in three of the last four.

Things to know about the Oklahoma vs. Mississippi betting trends

Oklahoma has only covered the 1H spread in one of its last four road games (-2.50 units / -54% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Oklahoma vs. Mississippi.

Information about the Oklahoma vs. Mississippi game

Oklahoma vs. Mississippi, recent injuries

Weather Oklahoma vs. Mississippi

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