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No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 11 Tennessee: Predictions and best bets for CFB Week 8
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No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 11 Tennessee: Predictions and best bets for CFB Week 8

Two undefeated records may not be at stake on the third Saturday in October, but the game has huge implications for the SEC Championship and the College Football Playoff.

Alabama and Tennessee started the year strong but suffered surprising losses in Week 6. Saturday's loser faces an uphill battle to live up to preseason expectations.

The Crimson Tide are slight favorites in one of the biggest games of the regular season.

Predictions and best bets for Alabama vs. Tennessee

Tennessee +3: -110 odds at BetMGM

Germie Bernard over 52.5 yards: -119 odds at Caesars

I don't trust the Tide to get three points in a difficult road environment at Neyland Stadium. Tennessee has won 18 of its last 19 home games, losing last season to No. 1 Georgia.

Alabama has allowed 25 points or more in three straight games. Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava struggled, but the outcome of the game doesn't rest on his shoulders.

Alabama has been brutal in stopping the run in recent weeks, and a clash with Tennessee's dominant rushing attack is not good.

The Volunteers rush for 246 yards per game and RB Dylan Sampson ranks second nationally in touchdown runs. Sampson passed for just 112 yards and three touchdowns in the win over Florida.

Iamaleava hasn't been consistent, but a great performance from Sampson will take some of the pressure off Tennessee's freshman passer.

I also expect Alabama WR Germie Bernard to continue posting solid numbers. The Washington transfer has improved week to week, setting season highs in receiving yards in the last two games.

Bernard rushed for 70 yards against Vanderbilt and 89 yards against South Carolina. The Las Vegas native will receive downfield targets from QB Jalen Milroe thanks to the attention of WR Ryan Williams.

Moneyline Odds Analysis Alabama vs. Tennessee

Why Alabama could be the favorite to win

Best odds: -148 at DraftKings

Alabama has won 16 of the last 17 meetings with Tennessee, and the Volunteers have yet to face a QB of Milroe's caliber.

Milroe has been efficient through the air, rushing for 310 yards or more in two of the last three games. He has also scored two touchdowns in all but one game.

However, Milroe will have to defend the ball to leave Neyland Stadium with a win. The Heisman hopeful has thrown an interception in three straight meetings.

The Tide's offense has averaged just 94 rushing yards over the last two games, and those numbers need to improve. Tennessee has a phenomenal defense that can shut down Alabama when Milroe has to do all he can.

Alabama's defense also needs to improve to limit the Volunteers' possessions and minimize the impact on Neyland Stadium. The Crimson Tide give up the fifth-most points per game in the SEC and have been unable to leave the field on third downs.

Why Tennessee could win as an underdog

Best odds: +130 at bet365

Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel is said to be a QB whisperer, but Nico has yet to exceed 215 yards against an FBS defense. Iamaleava's last multi-touchdown game came in Week 2.

Delivering accurate passes, especially on deep balls, would go a long way in defeating the Crimson Tide.

Luckily, Tennessee has Sampson to lean on against an Alabama defense that is allowing 129 rushing yards per game.

Iamaleava will also be supported by the Volunteers' top-notch defense. The unit ranks in the top four nationally in yards and points allowed per game.

The Volunteers excel at preventing explosive plays over 20 yards, a hallmark of Alabama's offense.

However, Tennessee LB and team captain Keenan Pili's season was cut short due to a torn ACL. Pili provided a veteran presence in his sixth season, leading the team in total tackles.

Tennessee should be prepared for Alabama to test the strength of the LB corps in Knoxville.

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