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MLB bullpens appear to be reaching a breaking point
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MLB bullpens appear to be reaching a breaking point

CLEVELAND – Walker Buehler threw four shutout innings for the Dodgers in NLCS Game 3 on Wednesday and was celebrated as if he had climbed the Mount Everest of pitching.

Matt Boyd pitched five one-run innings for the Guardians in ALCS Game 3 on Thursday, and I was sure I'd show up for Game 4 and out near Progressive Field Gate C, the left-hander would have a statue right next to him Bob's has Feller.

Of course, everything is in comparison, and in Games 1 and 2, Cleveland starters Alex Cobb and Tanner Bibee had gone four combined innings and scored six runs.

Closer Emmanuel Clase reacts in frustration after giving up a two-run home run to Aaron Judge in the eighth inning of the Yankees' loss to the Guardians in Game 3 of the ALCS. DAVID MAXWELL/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

And in the 34 postseason games entering Thursday, relievers had pitched more innings in October (301 2-3) than starters (296 2-3). Twelve of the 68 starts were two innings or less, reflecting both openers and quick hooks. Only one, from Baltimore's Corbin Burnes, reached the eighth inning and another seven completed seven innings.

I wonder if we're starting to see the devastating impact of this trend on bullpens, as relievers are taxed and over-taxed on hitters like never before. For example, there have already been 14 blown saves in these playoffs, two more than in any postseason outside of the 2020 season (when the postseason had 16 teams). Dynamic closers Emmanuel Clase from Cleveland, Josh Hader from Houston and Devin Williams from Milwaukee made saves, as did Edwin Diaz, Carlos Estevez from Philadelphia and the meteor of the moment, Luke Weaver.

Fifty-two minutes apart on Thursday night in ALCS Game 3, Clase fumbled for the first time since May 19 and Weaver for the first time ever in a game that ended with a 7-5 Cleveland win in 10 innings that both teams knew , that they didn't even have exhausted pens halfway through if this series lasts seven games.

We've been heading here for years via the metric revolution. It became clear that all pitchers should throw harder, spin more, and get the most out of every pitch. This has led to both more injuries and shorter starts. The shorter starts are because nothing is held back from pitch to pitch in a marathon. And why should you hold back? Many starters these days aren't allowed to go through a lineup more than twice – sometimes once at this time of year.

The domino effect is that the helpers are more involved. It stifles the offense because it results in seeing so many different, highly dynamic weapons in combat. But again, more pitching injuries are due to the grip-it and rip-it philosophy. And it just becomes a numbers game with so many weapons being used – how many are actually qualified? In September, when the roster expanded to 14 pitchers, Aaron Boone still mentioned several times that he was short on numbers in the bullpen.

Luke Weaver reacts dejectedly after hitting a game-winning two-run home run off Jhonkensy Noel in the ninth inning of the Yankees' Game 4 loss to the Guardians. Jason Scenes/New York Post

Entering the postseason, the Tigers tried to win with essentially one starter, likely AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. The Mets with Kodai Senga and the Guardians with Cobb attempted to rehab and train an injured starter in October. The Dodgers basically have a pitching staff on the IL.

The Guardians had two different bullpens. They have four substitutes in Hunter Gaddis (84 games), Tim Herrin (82), Cade Smith (81) and Clase (79), who have played in the most games (regular and postseason) this year, combined with fresh ones , late deployers Joey Cantillo, Eric Sabrowski and Andrew Walters. Clase allowed five earned runs and two homers in 74 1-3 regular season innings and has now allowed six earned runs and three homers in six postseason innings. Clase gave up as many consecutive home runs to Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in three minutes on Thursday night as he did in six months of the regular season.

The Yanks have had many off days since the end of the regular season. Still, Clay Holmes and Weaver appeared in all seven of the Yankees' playoff games. In the seventh, Weaver allowed a two-run home run in the ninth inning to Jhonkensy Noel to tie the score and Holmes allowed a two-run home run in the 10th inning to David Fry to give the Guardian a win.

Tarik Skubal was essentially the only starting player the Tigers had during their playoff run. Junfu Han/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Part of the success of relievers is that they are at least a little bit of a mystery to hitters who so rarely see them. But most relievers primarily use just two pitches, so take a closer look and it becomes demystifying. Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez (who hit a home run against Weaver in Game 2) and Lane Thomas had faced Weaver in each of the first three ALCS games. Weaver singled Thomas 0-2 with two outs in the ninth and couldn't get him out – Thomas hit a full-count double off the centerfield wall. Then Noel hit his game-winning home run.

Since 2019, hitters who see a reliever for the third time in the postseason have a .275/.340/.483 slashline with 18 home runs in 426 plate appearances (thanks to MLB Network research) — or basically hitters are turned into what Fernando Tatis Jr. was: .276/.340/.492 with 21 home runs in 438 plate appearances during the regular season.

The course we have taken is pretty clear. Starters have completed 54.7 percent of postseason innings in 2022, 51.9 last year and 49.6 percent so far this year, compared to 58.8 percent in the regular season. At the end of a long season we are now asking more trained guys to give less.

Are we seeing a breaking point?

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