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It's time to admit that Cavs are title contenders
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It's time to admit that Cavs are title contenders

The Cleveland Cavaliers are almost a tenth of the way through their season, but one thing is already clear. This team is good. Not good in the sense that they win 50 games and have a chance to get out of the first round. They are good in the sense that they could make it out of the Eastern Conference if everything goes well.

Four teams separated themselves from their competitors at the start of the season. The Cavs, Oklahoma City Thunder, Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors are all outscoring their opponents by 15 points or more per 100 possessions so far. The next team, the New York Knicks, is half as impressive (+7).

There are reasons to be skeptical about a small sample size of seven games. But early-season team performance is often a predictor of regular-season and postseason success, more so than with other small sample sizes. This is because most teams were injury-free to start the year and players need to put in extra effort before the rigors of the 82-game schedule wear down.

For example, last season, three of the top four teams in net ranking reached at least the second round in seven games, with the Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves going even further. The Philadelphia 76ers, the only team in this group not to do so, had to miss the game due to injury. In the previous five seasons, the eventual champions were in the top five in the net standings in seven games in four of those years.

How the Cavaliers got off to a hot start is why you should tune in. They won because they can play two very different styles that made things difficult for their opponents.

Kenny Atkinson differentiates the way he talks about the team in terms of the large and spread out lineups. He describes them as “two different animals” that require different things than those that are out there on the field. Both were successful.

Getting lineups with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley to work offensively is one of the things Atkinson should solve. So far he has done that.

Both bigs' lineups have posted a net rating of +9.9 and an offensive rating of 117.5 (74th percentile). They did this by getting out in transition – they are in the 97th percentile of points added in transition – and finishing at the rim. This prevented the offense from getting stuck in the half court.

The spread lineups are much more similar to how the Celtics and Thunder play. They distribute the ground to create open three-way lanes and lanes, with a center providing rim pressure. This is best seen in lineups with Mobley and Allen.

Units with Mobley as their sole center attempt three-pointers on 42.8% of their shot attempts (78th percentile). Their improved spacing allows them to operate much more efficiently in the half court, which has resulted in an offensive rating of 132.2 in this setting (132.2).

The success of both lineups, in different ways, has allowed the Cavs to have the third-best offense so far this season. We saw spread lineups be successful last season, particularly during the Cavs' 18-2 run midway through last season, but the success of the two big lineups has allowed the Cavaliers to have groups that play 48 minutes are consistently good for a long time. That wasn't the case last year.

Defense has been this team's calling card for years and it still is. The changes on offense haven't had a negative impact on defense, as Cleveland still boasts the third-best defense. Like the offensive side of the ball, their unique defensive pieces allow them to play differently depending on the game.

For example, the Cavs were able to contain Jalen Brunson and LeBron James with Dean Wade as the primary defender. Against the Milwaukee Bucks, Isaac Okoro was given the job for Damian Lillard. Many teams don't have a quality winger and defender to complement the back line.

Their personnel versatility in this regard has allowed lineups with both large teams and single-team groups to remain at the forefront defensively.

The best playoff teams have different ways to defeat an opponent. The different gears the Cavs can reach and the lineup combinations they can play with is something they haven't had in the past. Over the last two seasons, the slow pace of the two big lineups, combined with the short spacing and lack of movement off the ball, led to them relying entirely on Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland to lead them to victories. Now they are more diverse in their attack.

The offensive and defensive numbers show that the Cavs belong to the inner circle of title contenders. They're still behind Boston, but the gap isn't as big as it was in the playoffs last year.

The results of Atkinson's new system are being felt on the field more quickly than Atkinson could have hoped. But he'll be the first to admit they're far from a finished product.

“We still have a long way to go,” Atkinson said after last week’s win over the Los Angeles Lakers. “We are developing. We are still learning from each other. (There were) a few (instances) tonight where (I) disagreed with these guys. (I) get to know her better. Get to know her personality better. We’re still developing, but we’re on the right track.”

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