Former President Donald Trump is stronger in the polls than he was at this point in the 2016 and 2020 elections, but the race against Vice President Kamala Harris remains tight, according to the latest polling averages.

The 2024 presidential election campaign is entering its final weeks. Polls show Trump and Harris only narrowly separated in the battleground states. In 2016 and 2020, polls suggest that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden had a stronger lead over Trump than Harris did at the same point in those elections.

Real Clear Politics (RCP) gave Harris a 1.4-point lead over Trump nationally on Tuesday, with swing states even closer or in favor of the former president.

The average is Trump's strongest RCP average from mid-October. The pollster gave Biden a 9.4-point lead and Clinton a 6.7-point lead.

The polls were off by several points, leaning more toward Democrats in both elections than the eventual results. Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by about two points, losing the Electoral College, while Biden won the popular vote in 2020 by about 4.5 points, narrowly securing the electoral vote by 306 to 232.

Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University, said Newsweek that the race could seem closer this year due to ever-changing methods, a historically close race and improvements in aggregation.

“Let’s also not forget what 2016 and 2020 looked like – they ended up being incredibly close races where a winner seemed obvious, but a normal polling error could and did upend the pre-election polls in 2016. “Day,” she said.

“Polls from these past election cycles have been influenced by the narrative that a Democratic victory is certain, rather than acknowledging the inherent uncertainty inherent in statistical poll estimates and that a lead of a few points – even if constant – no guarantee of victory,” Koning added.

If there is a similar poll error to 2016 or 2020, it could point to a Trump victory next month.

“Let’s say we have an election error like in 2020. What happens then? Well, then Donald Trump wins the election with 312 electoral votes because he leads all of those battleground states on the Great Lake as well as Nevada and the other states he was leading in – Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia,” said CNN data reporter Harry ducks this month.

Pollsters have warned that a mistake could be repeated in November. Just because polls underestimated Trump's support in 2016 and 2020 doesn't necessarily mean they will do so in November, as pollsters adjust their methods after the election to produce more accurate results.

Pollsters have moved away from the “traditional gold standard” of telephone surveys and are now using text messages and panels, Koning said. After 2016, pollsters also began including education in their weighting.

“A central issue in all of these election cycles has been the “quality” of Republican voters as opposed to “quantity” — in other words, ensuring that Trump supporters respond. Some pollsters have changed questionnaire design and question wording to capture this, while others – for better or worse – have relied on past votes and/or partisanship this election cycle,” she said.

Some pollsters are now using past voting history as a way to correct the undercount from the last presidential election.

In a statement about this NewsweekRepublican National Committee spokeswoman Anna Kelly pointed to Trump's poll.

“Even after Democrats spent over $200 million to redefine Kamala Harris, President Trump is winning or tied in every battleground because his message resonates with voters across the country,” she said.

Newsweek Harris' campaign also emailed Harris' campaign seeking comment.

Democrats and Republicans agree the race is close, and both candidates are spending the final weeks of the campaign traversing battleground states in hopes of building momentum and urging their supporters to vote. Maximizing voter turnout over the next few weeks will be crucial to the victory of both candidates, regardless of the polls.

But the Republicans are not always undervalued in polls. In 2012 they did the opposite. RCP showed Mitt Romney ahead of then-President Barack Obama by 0.7 points, but Obama ended up winning by 3.9 points.

FiveThirtyEight's polling average was slightly better for Harris. It showed her leading Trump by 2.4 points. But in 2020, Biden led the poll average by 10.5 points as of October 15. Clinton led by six points on the same day in 2016.

The latest polls were also slightly better for Trump than at the beginning of the fall, but still not as strong as after his debate against Biden in July. Trump overtook Biden in the polls after the debate stoked concerns about the president's age, which ultimately led to his withdrawal from the race. Harris rebounded after becoming the Democratic nominee, but the race is still seen as a back-and-forth affair.

Comparing swing state poll averages to 2020 and 2016

Tuesday's RCP polling average showed Trump leading in Arizona by 1.1 points, while Biden was ahead by 3.5 points in 2020 and 2016 and Trump was ahead by 0.7 points. In Nevada, Trump led Harris by just 0.2 points, compared to Biden's 5.2-point lead in 2020 and Clinton's 1.6-point lead in 2016.

In Georgia, Trump led Harris by an average of 0.6 points as of Tuesday, compared to Biden's 1.2-point lead in 2020 and Trump's 5.3-point lead in 2016. Trump leads by 0.6 points in North Carolina, according to RCP. Biden led Trump by 2.8 points in 2020, while Clinton led him by 3.3 points in the Tar Heel State in 2016.

Trump had a lead of 0.9 points in the RCP's Michigan average on Tuesday. At this point, Biden was ahead by 7.2 points in 2020 and Clinton was ahead by 11.4 points in 2016. Trump led Harris in Pennsylvania by 0.3 points, compared to Biden's 6.4-point lead in 2020 and Clinton's 8.2-point lead in 2016.

Harris led Trump in Wisconsin by 0.3 points. In 2020, Biden led Trump by 6.3 points, while in 2016, Clinton led Trump by 6 points in the state.