SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – Sunday will be unusually warm again. Highs will peak in the high 80s, but the dew point could dip into the mid 60s for a slightly more comfortable feel. Monday will be just as calm, then clouds will build in on Tuesday as the storm moves north in the tropics.

The disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwest Caribbean are now designated Invest AL97. This is accompanied by the first plots of the spaghetti model, which will move the system northwest over Cuba at the beginning of the week. By Wednesday it will continue north of Florida's west coast and parallel to the coast. This is close enough to bring thunderstorms to Florida on Wednesday and Thursday. Most models keep the storm at tropical storm strength (winds of 39 to 73 mph). Some of the models achieve Category 1 strength.

Late Wednesday, models project the storm to extend as far north as Tampa Bay, still offshore. Afterwards there is chaos among the models. Some will bring it as far as the Big Bend area, others will push it further west toward the Louisiana coast by next weekend. As this storm continues to develop, we should reach more consensus on models regarding the track and intensity of what is expected to become Rafael.

The track and intensity of this storm may still change greatly as it becomes more organized.

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