TAMPA, Fla. – According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a nascent weather disturbance in the Caribbean Sea will increasingly develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next few days.

The system, designated Invest 97L by the NHC, remained a group of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwest Caribbean Sea Sunday morning. However, there is an 80% chance of it developing in the next two days and a 90% chance of it developing in the next week.

According to the NHC, a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form as the system moves north-northwest across the central and western Caribbean. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to examine Invest 97L later Sunday.

“Regardless of developments, locally heavy rainfall is possible over parts of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba,” the NHC said in its latest forecast. “Those interested in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings may be required for portions of the area later today or this evening.”

Since a subtropical system in the North Atlantic was named Patty on Saturday, Rafael is the next name on the 2024 Atlantic list should this Caribbean disturbance reach tropical storm strength.

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“The general consensus in the computer forecast model predictions is that the system will be at or near tropical storm strength when it reaches the southern Gulf on Wednesday or Thursday,” said Bryan Norcross, FOX weather hurricane specialist. “A dense cloud of tropical moisture is expected to rotate northward with the potential storm. This will increase the risk of flooding in Caribbean islands west of Puerto Rico starting Monday. Some of the moisture could reach South Florida by midweek.”

But Norcross says once the system is in the Gulf, the forecast becomes fuzzy as weaker steering currents make the forecast more uncertain.

“If the system remains relatively weak, it is more likely to drift westward, perhaps toward the Mexican coast,” Norcross said. “However, if it is on the stronger side, it could continue north toward part of the U.S. Gulf Coast.”

However, if the storm attempts to approach the US, it could still encounter hostile atmospheric conditions as there is a lot of dry air in the Gulf of Mexico and an unfavorable wind pattern in the upper elevations.

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“Even if it were possible – Rafael could strengthen in the southern Gulf, a severe storm on the coast based on what we know now – is unlikely,” Norcross said, adding whether the system should ever reach the coast depends Current schedule, that would happen next weekend or so.

“Of course, we will be watching the tropics for another week, although the likelihood of a major storm hitting the U.S. appears to be low,” he said. “Of course, forecasts for a week are always fuzzy, so stay tuned.”

Another disturbance near the Caribbean Sea may connect with 97L

The NHC is also monitoring a low pressure area near the northeastern Caribbean Sea, but the likelihood of this system developing in the next few days is low.

“Some heavy tropical rainfall will impact the northeastern Caribbean islands over the next few days as the system moves westward,” Norcross said. “(This) week it will likely be absorbed by the developing unrest in the Caribbean.”

The National Hurricane Center believes there is a low chance of this system developing into a tropical depression over the next few days. Even if that were to happen, however, it wouldn't change the expected weather, Norcross said.

North Atlantic: Subtropical Storm Patty hits the Azores

In the North Atlantic, subtropical storm Patty passed over the Azores on Sunday.

Patty had sustained winds of 45 mph and was beginning to move away from the southeastern Azores, the NHC said.

Tropical storms were expected in the Azores until Sunday afternoon, along with rainfall totals of up to 10 cm by early Monday.

The remnants of the storm could finally reach Portugal and western Spain early this week.

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