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Inflation, a health crisis and a side of politics
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Inflation, a health crisis and a side of politics

Life under the Golden Arches hasn't been easy this year.

McDonald's has faced a customer revolt over its pricey Big Macs, an unprompted cameo in the crossfire of election season and now an E. coli outbreak – just as the company had lured customers back with cheaper burgers.

Still, like U.S. consumers themselves, Mickey D's remains in solid shape in 2025 despite ongoing challenges.

The fast-food giant reported Tuesday that it reversed its recent decline in U.S. sales, posting a 0.3% increase in the third quarter. Foot traffic was still down slightly, but the company said the summer of discounts paid off.

“We will remain focused on delivering an unparalleled experience of simple, everyday utility and affordability that our consumers can rely on as they continue to watch their spending,” CEO Chris Kempczinski said in a statement alongside the earnings report.

Financial results near the end of a humbling year for the nearly $213 billion restaurant chain, whose shares held steady after recent gains. Kempczinski sought to reassure investors that the E. coli outbreak linked to Quarter Pounder burgers was under control after the health crisis temporarily weighed on the company's shares and, according to Gordon estimates, in the days that followed Haskett financial researchers had led to a decline in foot traffic in the US by almost 10%.

“We expect it to be behind us,” Kempczinski said on Tuesday’s conference call.

Despite a difficult quarter, McDonald's appears resilient in the face of various pressures, analysts say – something the company shares with U.S. consumers at large.

Compared to other big brands like Starbucks, which have struggled to reconnect with wallet-conscious customers, McDonald's has done an “excellent job” of bringing guests back, said Ravi Dhar, director of the Center for Customer Insights Yale University.

“McDonald's has also done a good job of anchoring the brand in popular culture to reinforce its relevance and importance of fun and family. But there was also a need to adapt the product line to meet the expectations of a consumer on a tight budget,” he said.

McDonald's did not respond to requests for comment.

For many consumers, the fast-food giant's menus serve as an informal gauge of the overall economy, said Sara Senatore, a restaurant analyst at Bank of America. “McDonald's is always in the spotlight because it's so big” and something of a “leader,” she said.

That could be one reason it came up in the presidential campaign. Vice President Kamala Harris has touted the summer job she once held at the burger chain as a way to cement her middle-class credentials. That prompted former President Donald Trump to sling French fries during a photo op at a Philadelphia-area McDonald's this month.

Mickey D's $5 meal deal, introduced in late June to boost declining sales, has given the company an attractive price it can promote nationally, Senatore said, speculating that it opens the door to a new offering with lasting appeal could open up added value. But before this promotion was introduced, the company's reputation as a cost-effective option had suffered a major setback.

Like many big brands, McDonald's made big profits as the economy rebounded from the pandemic. In October 2022, executives boasted that they had raised prices without hurting traffic, even as competitors began to warn that some customers were closing their wallets after inflation peaked above 9% in the summer. Still, the U.S. had repeatedly dodged a much-predicted recession, and Americans continued to spend money on non-essential items like travel and dining out — even as they regularly told pollsters their gloomy views about an otherwise solid economy.

But earlier this year, photos of jaw-dropping menu prices at some McDonald's locations – including, as of July 2023, an $18 Big Mac combo at a Connecticut truck stop – went viral, bringing diners' long-simmering frustration to a boiling point. which the company stated could not ignore. During a conference call in April, Kempczinski acknowledged that foot traffic was down.

McDonald's drive-thru economy fast food
McDonald's has had some success Eric Thayer/Bloomberg via Getty Images file

“Consumers continue to be more selective with every dollar they spend,” he said at the time. Going forward, McDonald's would be “laser-focused” on affordability.

Mickey D's wasted no time in extending the $5 meal promotion after Coca-Cola committed some marketing funds following better-than-expected performance.

“The thing that McDonald's has struggled with and why I think we're seeing sort of a tipping point is a value proposition,” Senatore said. “McDonald's menu price increases outpaced many of its restaurant peers. … Consumers are smart enough to know that.”

The company is far from alone in making a course correction, said Sam Oches, editorial director of the restaurant and food group at Informa, a market research firm. “Everyone has been trying to find solutions to the declining traffic trend all year,” he said.

Coming up with the right formula isn't easy, Oches said, because you have to adapt to changes in consumer behavior, which is still evolving: “Someone might say, 'Today there are no more McDonald's drink treats, I'm eating.' at home – but maybe I'll get another one tomorrow.' But even a few fewer visits, across millions of people, have a big impact.”

Senatore attributed McDonald's ability to address the problem in part to its sheer size, which includes over 14,000 locations in the U.S. alone. “I can’t emphasize enough how important relative size is in this industry,” she said. “They just have a much bigger megaphone.”

Other major megaphone welding companies have joined the price-cutting bandwagon this year, fearing their own customers are leaving or trying to respond to setbacks that have already begun. Amazon, Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Walgreens and JetBlue are just a few of the major consumer brands that have resorted to discounts this year. That reality remains as consumers adjust to higher prices, even as inflation fever has subsided and the pace of price increases slowed last month to the lowest level since February 2021.

Still, 64% of consumers said they noticed price increases at quick-service restaurants in September, more than at any other venue, according to a survey by Datassential, a food and beverage market researcher. Politicians are still drawing attention to the cost of fast food as the election season draws to a tumultuous end. A group of Democratic senators criticized McDonald's this month over menu prices that they said were higher than inflation, accusing the company of making a profit “at the expense of people's ability to put food on the table.”

In such a climate, analysts expect the discounts and special offers to continue. “In a normalized environment, I don’t think there will be as much emphasis on value as there is right now,” said Jim Salera, a restaurant analyst at financial firm Stephens.

And so far this game largely works. Retail sales rose 0.4% last month, better than expected.

“September’s numbers show that consumers are willing to spend where they see value,” Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the National Retail Federation, said in a statement. “It is clear that consumers continue to drive the economy and conditions for the retail sector remain favorable as we approach the Christmas period.”

There was even an E. coli outbreak at McDonald's As a result, 75 people in 13 states became ill and one person diedhasn't shaken Wall Street's confidence in the company. Senatore acknowledged that the stock has been “quite volatile” but is virtually unchanged since the start of the year. JPMorgan analysts recently said the company's shares are “now trading on emotion/concern,” citing McDonald's robust, flexible supply chain and strong momentum from the $5 meal.

It remains to be seen whether these expectations will be confirmed in the fourth quarter and next year. But for now, the company is managing to get through it.

“They are constantly fighting for attention, loyalty and trust, working on menu innovations and introducing loyalty programs,” Oches said. “It’s a fight out there.”

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