Hurricane Rafael is still in the official hurricane season, but in rare company.

As of 1:00 p.m. Eastern time, Hurricane Rafael was blowing with maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour, making it a Category 3 hurricane.

Philip Klotzbach, meteorologist and hurricane researcher, gives us some great statistics on X.

According to Klotzbach, Hurricane Rafael is the fifth major hurricane this season. He says since 1966 there have been five or more major hurricanes in just seven other years.

He also points out that this is the fourth major hurricane since late September. This matches the record set in 2020. Otherwise, he says the maximum number of major hurricanes during this late period was two.

The National Hurricane Center's official trajectory forecast takes Rafael slowly westward into the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. Note that Rafael is forecast to be a hurricane through Saturday and then weaken to a tropical storm.

Can Rafael remain a strong hurricane as it approaches part of the US coast? Probably not. We know that hurricanes require water that is at least 80 degrees to exist. Current sea surface temperatures show areas in the Gulf of Mexico have cooled to less than 80 degrees. Given the time of year and the sun's slowly decreasing heat output, ocean temperatures will not warm immediately.

The trend over the past week has been for temperatures to warm a degree or two in some small areas of the Gulf of Mexico, but for most areas it is slightly cooler.

Hurricane Rafael is coming from an area with a water temperature of 80 to 85 degrees and moving into an area with a water temperature of 75 to 80 degrees.

Hurricane Rafael should not be a hurricane if it hits anywhere on the US coast. For now, it's just a reminder that we've had a very active and devastating hurricane season here in the United States