New models show Hurricane Kristy is barreling across the eastern Pacific and is unlikely to make landfall.

Hurricane Kristy strengthened to a Category 3 hurricane on Wednesday. While it remains an unlikely direct threat to North and Central America, forecasters say there could be a “life-threatening” surge along the West Coast.

“Spaghetti models” is a nickname for weather models that show potential tropical cyclone paths. Taken together, the individual model tracks can look like strands of spaghetti. When the lines are grouped, it means there is a higher level of confidence in the storm's projected direction.

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A spaghetti model created by Tropical Tidbits showed that the vast majority of developments indicate that Hurricane Kristy will stay away from North and Central America. It will continue to move west across the Pacific Ocean, although there is an outlier that suggests it could change course toward northern Mexico and the United States

However, the National Weather Service appears confident that Kristy will remain over the Pacific Ocean. The NWS wrote yesterday on

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“Kristy is moving westward at a speed of approximately 20 mph (31 km/h).
“A west-northwest movement is forecast through Thursday,” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported in its latest update at 8 a.m. PDT Wednesday. “Slower movement from northwest to north-northwest is expected through late Friday.”

The NHC said Kristy's strength was expected to fluctuate over the next day or so, with “continuous to rapid weakening” occurring through early Friday, dissipating over the weekend.

However, landfall along the west coast will have some impact. “Swells caused by Kristy will impact portions of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula later this week and into the weekend,” the NHC reported. “These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.”

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Storms that originate in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans typically spread westward, making Atlantic storms a greater threat to North America, such as recent hurricanes Milton and Helene.

Storms in the Pacific Ocean tend to pose less of a threat to the mainland, but when a storm moves or forms closer to land, strong winds and storm surges are not uncommon on western coasts. Last year's Hurricane Hilary, which originated in the Pacific, brought devastating winds and torrential rain to Southern California after making landfall in Mexico as a tropical storm.

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15, two weeks before the start of the Atlantic season. Both end on November 30th.