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How will La Niña affect Michigan this winter?
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How will La Niña affect Michigan this winter?

(CBS DETROIT) – Last winter was mild, with below-average snowfall and above-average temperatures. This year, however, things could be a little different with La Niña.

While El Niño is the warm phase, La Niña is the cool phase of the tropical Pacific temperature climate, called the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO.

Typically, the trade winds push warm surface water toward Asia, moving from east to west. However, in some years these trade winds are stronger, causing cool water to rise to the surface in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean. This will cause the jet stream to flow further north, bringing more wet weather to Michigan without a significant impact on temperatures.

Trent Frey, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Detroit, says the La Niña forecast has changed.

“I think originally we were forecast to have a moderate or perhaps even strong La Niña this year, whereas the latest forecast is currently predicting a weak La Niña. And those are determined just by how cold, how much colder than normal – “The colder it is, the stronger La Niña is,” he said.

Last year was one of the warmest winters on record due to strong El Niño. But what can we expect this year?

“So this year we’re expecting a wetter year,” Frey said. “That will be the more likely scenario. It's hard to say whether a lot of it will fall as snow or whether it could fall as rain or, you know, a wintry mix of some ice and freezing rain. Things like that. Instead.” Since we're on the drier, less snowy side, we're more on the wetter, possibly snowier side.

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