RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – The day before Wimbledon begins, Aryna Sabalenka and her team gathered on Court 1 at the Aorangi Park training facility.

She played a few spirited points with her good friend Ons Jabeur before embarking on the critical examination.

““We were out there on the court, the last chance to serve,” said their coach Anton Dubrov. “It was hard to watch. After about three or four applications we saw it.”

This sparked an intense discussion in the small group. Load yourself up with medication and pills and play through a nagging shoulder injury – or press pause?

“What are the chances?” Dubrov continued. “If we try too hard, we might lose the whole season.”

Weighing the risk: a difficult decision

We now know that Sabalenka's 2024 season was a complete success. Here at the WTA finals in Riyadh, presented by PIF, she won her first two group games – and when Iga Swiatek lost to Coco Gauff on Tuesday evening, Sabalenka secured first place at the end of the year.

WTA finals Riyadh: results | Schedule | Ranking

But four months ago, this seemed like a remote possibility. According to Dubrov, the central question at the time was: How do we take advantage of the greatest possible opportunity?

A younger Sabalenka probably would have tried, taking medication for the pain and swinging and slashing her way through as many fights as she could. But the question was, how would that jeopardize her primary goal for this year of finishing as the highest-ranked player on the Hologic WTA Tour?

Just over a week before Wimbledon, Sabalenka felt a stabbing pain in her right shoulder during a Berlin quarterfinal match against Anna Kalinskaya. She had optimized the teres major muscle, which lies just under the armpit and is one of 13 muscles that help extend and rotate the upper arm bone (humerus). Ultimately, she made the difficult decision to forfeit as Kalinskaya led 5-1 in the first set.

Wimbledon was next and Sabalenka was keen to play.

“As someone who has struggled with a lot of different pains over the last few months,” she said in Berlin, “I still have hope.”

The funny thing about it? Sabalenka could lift weights, practice and even hit her deadly groundstrokes. She simply couldn't serve without feeling pain.

“It’s really annoying,” Sabalenka said. “You don’t feel like you’re hurt. We did an MRI, we did everything. We did a lot of rehab, a lot of treatments and everything.”

In 2023, she snatched the No. 1 ranking from Iga Swiatek for eight weeks – only to see Swiatek reclaim the position by winning her final 11 games. When Wimbledon opened play, Sabalenka trailed Swiatek by 3,744 points.

There were other factors too. Unable to play at Wimbledon in 2022 due to the growing conflict in Ukraine, she would have missed the prestigious tournament twice in three years. Wimbledon's venerable grass court enhances Sabalenka's dynamic game and she had reached the semi-finals in her two previous appearances. She was the No. 3 seed but remained the favorite, and the winner's 2,000 ranking points was a tempting, tempting goal.

The step back paved the way to success

Every instinct, every emotion urged Sabalenka to play her scheduled first-round match against Emina Bektas of the United States. And yet she and her team managed to focus on the bigger picture.

“It breaks my heart to have to tell you all that I will not be able to compete in the Championships this year,” Sabalenka said in a social media post. “I tried everything to prepare, but unfortunately my shoulder isn't working. I pushed myself to the limit in training today to do my best, but my team told me that playing would only make things worse.

“This tournament means so much to me and I promise I will be back next year stronger than ever.”

Five months later, at the WTA Finals in Riyadh, Sabalenka had a word to describe that decision and the discussions that led to it.

“Wow,” she said, shaking her head.

“A very, very difficult decision for me,” she said, “because I never, ever left the tournament because of the injury.” That was the first time I had experienced something like that.

“Even though it wasn't a major, serious injury – I recovered quickly – I would say it was still very difficult mentally.”

When forensic archaeologists re-examine Sabalenka's brilliant season, they will likely find that this decision was the critical mass moment that made it possible. The moment Sabalenka and her team saved her season and perhaps changed the trajectory of one of its biggest stars and played a modest part in changing the history of women's professional tennis.

The lesson? Giving in doesn't necessarily mean giving up. Less, as painful as it may seem at the time, can sometimes lead to more.

“I agree 100 percent,” said 18-time Grand Slam winner Martina Navratilova. “Nowadays players are better at planning their own schedules.”

Between singles and doubles, Navratilova averaged nearly 120 matches in her 22 full seasons. In their day, players continued to play regardless of their physical condition. If Sabalenka reaches the final in Riyadh, she will finish the year with 71 games.

“You can take one or two breaks during the season and still not lose that much,” Navratilova said. “I wish I had, but it never occurred to me.”

Keeping the Fire: How Skipping Paris Made Sure Their Season Continued to Thrive

With the Olympic tournament pushed into an already crowded calendar, things were always going to be difficult for the leading players. Team Sabalenka had already grappled with this question and decided to skip the Paris Games, although all leading players except Elena Rybakina took part.

The Olympic decision was made much earlier.

“Start of the clay court season,” Dubrov said. “We had a big calendar, four big events in the summer – Roland Garros, Wimbledon, Olympics and US Open. It's clay, grass, back to clay and hard courts. There is no real preparation for the hard courts.

“It’s not just physical. Emotionally you always have to recover. As for our percentage chances on sand, we thought she would have a better chance if we left her out.

The abrupt switch from the grass at Wimbledon back to the red clay of Roland Garros (for the second time in less than two months) was a deciding factor. Looking back, good judgment may have been the secret strength of Sabalenka's team. After withdrawing from Wimbledon, she returned to her home in Miami and focused on rehab.

A successful comeback: the path to No. 1

With the best players from around the world gathering in Paris following a nearly six-week break, Sabalenka began training in Washington, D.C., with the intention of building a successful summer season. After further discussion, she decided to give it a try. Kamilla Rakhimova, No. 78, took her to three sets.

Sabalenka played with caution, winning two games there and two more in Toronto. In Cincinnati, Sabalenka found her championship form.

Dubrov saw it before she won the WTA 1000 title. “She’s actually getting better, better, better,” he thought to himself.

“Yes,” he said in the players’ lounge in Riyadh, “I knew then that we had made the right decision not to play at Wimbledon and the Olympics.”

Sabalenka followed with her third Grand Slam singles title at the US Open. Her 15-match winning streak ended in Beijing, but she bounced back to win the title in Wuhan.

It was her second match in Wuhan, after defeating Yulia Putintseva, Sabalenka moved ahead of Swiatek at number 1 in the rankings. After Swiatek skipped the Asian momentum and had points deducted for missing compulsory events, Sabalenka came to Riyadh with a lead of more than 1,000 points.

“The game is more physical now, the body takes longer to recover, there is no doubt about that,” Navratilova said. “Today they realize it’s okay to take a break.

“I called it this summer. I said most people who come to the US Open will be there with their tongues hanging out – and Sabalenka comes in fresh as a daisy and is laughing the whole time.”

And now she's ranked No. 1 at the end of the year for the first time – and has won 22 of her last 23 games.

Looking back, it's easy to see that missing out on Wimbledon and the Olympics – arguably the biggest events of the season – made it possible, both physically and mentally.

“Looking back, it was an important moment for me to just sit back and recharge my batteries,” said Sabalenka in Riyadh. “Get a great rest and make sure my shoulder is healed so I can come back stronger. After this little break I was super, super hungry for tennis,

“I think it definitely helped me get to where I am now.”