Topline

Two new polls released Wednesday show Vice President Kamala Harris three points ahead of former President Donald Trump in Michigan as races in the three “blue wall” states that could cement a victory for either candidate in November , remains wafer-thin.

Important facts

Big number

1.8 points. That's Harris' lead in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight polling averages.

What are the key demographic groups in Michigan?

The Harris campaign owes much of its success to improved numbers of black and white working-class voters in Michigan — home to the largest black-majority city in the U.S., Detroit, and a large number of union voters who typically support Democratic presidential candidates. Data shows that since Joe Biden dropped out of the race, Harris has been gaining ground among white voters without a college degree — a demographic that is important to Trump — even as Trump leads the group by double digits. Democratic support among Black voters — who typically vote overwhelmingly for the party — has declined somewhat since 2020, although Harris appears to be voting in Michigan, according to a Times/Siena poll that found 75% of Black voters would vote has regained some support for her in the group's September poll, compared to 49% who said the same about Biden in May. Trump, meanwhile, has attacked the Biden-Harris administration's policies promoting the transition to electric vehicles in Michigan, home of the “Big Three” automakers, claiming they are a threat to the auto industry and its many Michigan-based employees.

Why are union endorsements important in Michigan?

Households in Michigan with a union member were more likely to vote for a Democratic presidential candidate in the last three presidential elections than households with unions nationwide, Reuters reported, citing pollster Edison Research. The United Auto Workers' endorsement of Harris was seen as a boon to her candidacy in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. However, the decisions by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and the International Association of Fire Fighters not to endorse anyone, after endorsing Biden in 2020 and having supported Democrats in the past, were widely seen as a blow to Harris.

Will Arab American voters in Michigan break with Kamala Harris?

Michigan has a sizable Arab-American population, many of whom are angered by the Biden-Harris administration's continued support of Israel in the Gaza war. Recent polling for John Zogby Strategies' Arab American Institute appears to show that the Biden administration's handling of the crisis has significantly dented his support among the demographic group: those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats identify, split at 38%, compared to 40% in 2020, % identified as Democrats and 32% identified as Republicans. The pro-Palestinian group Uncommitted, which encouraged primary voters in Michigan and other key states not to support Biden, has not endorsed Harris, although it said this week that it believes Trump is worse than Harris.

tangent

For the first time since the 1980s, Democrats control all three branches of state government in Michigan.

Important background

Before Biden dropped out of the race, Trump was narrowly ahead of Biden in polls in Michigan. The state's popular Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, co-chair of the Biden and Harris campaigns, is seen as a key factor in helping Harris replicate Whitmer's own success in the state, where she won two elections by double digits, boosting her standing She has a lead in the 2022 election as she fights for abortion rights after the Roe vs. Wade reversal. Although abortion is still a high priority for voters, it has lost some of its prominence in electoral politics since 2022 as other issues, including ongoing inflation and the war between Israel and Hamas, also shape voting decisions.

Is Trump or Harris ahead in the seven swing states?

According to FiveThirtyEight's swing state polling averages, Harris is ahead of Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada, while Trump is ahead in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.

Cons

A Harris victory over the blue wall depends on her winning Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District and its single electoral vote. The district is a special case in the state because it typically elects a Democrat for president. Nebraska is just one of two states that takes a piecemeal approach to allocating electoral votes rather than a winner-take-all approach. A last-ditch effort to change the rule, backed by the Republican Party, recently failed to gain the traction needed to succeed in the state legislature.

Further reading

Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Harris remains ahead in four new polls (Forbes)

2024 Election Swing State Polls: Harris Leads by 1 Point in 7 Battlegrounds in Latest Poll (Forbes)