Topline

Third-party candidates are on the ballot in key swing states, and with the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remaining virtually undecided, a few votes for smaller candidates could make the difference.

Important facts

In which swing states are there third-party candidates and how are these candidates interviewed?

• Arizona: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. Stein holds 2% of the vote and Oliver holds 1% in a Times/Siena poll released Nov. 3. In the same poll, Trump has a four-point lead.
• Michigan: Stein, Oliver, West and Kennedy are on the ballot. Kennedy has less than half a percentage point, Stein has 2%, West has less than 1% and Oliver has 1% in the Times/Siena poll. In the same poll, Harris is tied with Trump (45% to 45%).
• Wisconsin: Stein, Oliver, West and Kennedy are on the ballot. Kennedy has less than half a percentage point, Stein has 1%, West has less than half a percentage point and Oliver has less than 1% in the Times/Siena poll. In the same poll, Harris led Trump by three points.
• Georgia: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. According to the Times/Siena poll, Stein has less than 1% and Oliver has 2%. In the same poll, Harris is tied with Trump (46% to 46%).
• Nevada: Oliver is on the ballot; He has 2% of the vote, according to the Times/Siena poll. In the same poll, Harris leads Trump by three points.
• North Carolina: Stein, Oliver and West are on the ballot. According to the Times/Siena poll, Stein has less than 1% of the vote, West has less than half a percentage point and Oliver has less than 1% of the vote. In the same poll, Harris leads Trump by three points.
• Pennsylvania: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. According to the Times/Siena poll, Stein has about 1% of the vote and Oliver has less than 1% of the vote. In the same poll, Harris and Trump are tied, 47-47%.

Crucial quote

“This year, third parties appear to have very little traction and will likely play a very limited role, but (in) an extremely close election where a few thousand votes in three or four states could decide the outcome, a third party will do that.” Ties of even a tenth of 1% could make a difference,” Bruce Schulman, a historian and professor at Boston University, told Forbes by email.

Important background

Third-party candidates have almost no chance of winning the election, given the amount of money and popularity needed to curb the electoral and popular vote. Historically, no third-party candidate has won a presidential race — and they often underperform their poll numbers, according to the Pew Research Center. Yet many of these candidates have spent money, effort and even lawsuits to get on (or off) the ballot. Candidates are often accused of acting as spoilsports, something third-party candidates typically deny, saying they offer voters an ideological option not offered by any of the major parties. Suspected spoilers in recent years include 2016 candidates Stein and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who received 1% and 3% of the vote, respectively. Some argue that Stein hurt Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign: The Green Party candidate won tens of thousands of votes in Wisconsin, more than the margin that won Trump the presidency. The regular candidate Ralph Nader is also described as a spoilsport because of his election campaign in 2000, in which he scored a few percentage points in Florida, where George W. Bush narrowly won against Al Gore. The late billionaire Ross Perot famously ran for president in 1992 against Democrat Bill Clinton and Republican President George HW Bush. He received about 18.9% of the vote, the closest thing to a third-party candidate in American history, and was widely believed to have hurt Bush.

What is a protest vote?

In such a hotly contested race, some voters see voting for a third party as a way to protest the election or express dissatisfaction with two major candidates.

What you should pay attention to

For some Muslim and Arab American voters unhappy with President Joe Biden's support of Israel in the Gaza invasion, Stein has emerged as a preferred candidate. Their support is particularly strong in Michigan (home to a large Arab-American population), Arizona and Wisconsin, Reuters reports, citing a poll by an advocacy group, the Council on American-Islamic Relations. In Michigan, 40% of Muslim voters said they would vote for Stein, versus 18% for Trump and 12% for Harris, CAIR said.