A clear tilt toward former President Donald Trump on political gambling platform Polymarket this month sparked scrutiny of four accounts that collectively spent over $28 million betting on the Republican candidate to win the 2024 presidential election.

Polymarket confirmed on Thursday what many experts suspected: all four accounts are controlled by a single trader.

A company spokesperson described the whale as a French citizen with “extensive trading experience and a background in financial services” in a statement to CNBC.

The statement said the trader's accounts were funded by a “well-known centralized crypto exchange” that outlets other than the US-based exchange Kraken have identified.

The company stressed it found no evidence that the trader was trying to take advantage of Trump's opportunities in the political betting market.

An investigation involving outside experts “has not revealed any information to date that suggests this user has manipulated or attempted to manipulate the market,” Polymarket said.

The New York Times, which reported Polymarket's statement early Thursday morning, said the company had been working with investigative firm Nardello & Company.

The scrutiny of Polymarket's operations comes as political betting markets have taken on a much more prominent role in the 2024 election cycle.

Trump's supporters have touted the widening gap between Polymarket and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris as evidence that Trump's support is growing – even if the shift is a marked departure from most national polls, which show a neck-and-neck race within the margin of error.

Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX and one of the biggest donors to Trump's run for the White House, claimed on X, the social media platform he runs, that betting markets are “more accurate than polls because it involves real money.” go”. .”

In Thursday's statement, Polymarket emphasized that “prediction markets are not opinion polls – they measure the probability of an event occurring, not the percentage of people who intend to take an action, such as in this case voting on Election Day.”

“Unfortunately, this fundamental misunderstanding is responsible for much of the misinformation about Polymarket and other prediction market platforms,” the company said.

According to data from Polymarket, the total value of accounts for the presidential election bet was about $28.6 million as of Thursday morning.

The four accounts – Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie – are among the top five holders on the pro-Trump site of Polymarkets bet on who will win the race for the White House.

The trader's accounts also have over $7 million bet on Trump winning the popular vote over Harris.

Odds and gambling platforms do not use traditional political polling methods and are therefore not a substitute for political polling.

The Polymarket spokesman said he believes “this individual is taking a leadership position based on personal views on the election.”

Nevertheless, the person “agreed not to open any additional accounts without prior notice.”

Following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022, Polymarket is currently banned from US traders.

But another betting platform, Kalshi, released new contracts for the presidential election after a federal appeals court in Washington, DC, issued a favorable ruling Interactive brokers has also made a number of political betting deals.

The CFTC is questioning Kalshi's right to place these bets.