Each week throughout the 2023-24 NBA season, we'll be taking a deeper look at some of the league's biggest storylines to find out whether future trends are based more on fact or fiction.

Fact or fiction: Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers are in for a long season

According to ESPN's Shams Charania, the NBA this week opened an investigation into former MVP Joel Embiid's early-season absence from the Philadelphia 76ers. Apparently the league has just as many questions as the rest of us regarding the 7-footer's continued lack of availability, and for good reason.

Embiid missed each of Philadelphia's six preseason games due to what the team described as a “left knee injury management.” In January, he tore the meniscus in his left knee for a second time, requiring re-operation, sidelining him until April, when he returned at less than 100% for Philadelphia's playoff run.

He played for Team USA in the Olympics and showed up to training camp on time, touting his weight loss. Maybe we should have paid more attention when Embiid told us on media day: “Physically I’m fine. I'm not where I want to be. …Until they feel like I'm ready to go, I'm sure they'll hold me back.

Hold him back, that's what they did. The Sixers issued a statement before the regular-season opener indicating that Embiid is “responding well to his individual plan and is expected to increase his return-to-play activities this week, including scrimmaging.” He is expected to miss at least two more games early in the season.

In other words, nine months after a second surgery on his left knee, six months after his return to the court, three months since his stint in Paris and one month into the 2024-25 season, Embiid is starting to get into game shape. Not only should this raise alarm bells; This is a five-alarm fire.

Embiid is listed at 7 feet and 280 pounds. Believe it or not, according to Basketball Reference, only four other players of that stature in history have ever made a single All-Star team: Shaquille O'Neal, Yao Ming, Andrew Bynum and Brook Lopez.

Bynum, whose career required multiple surgeries on both knees, retired at age 26. Yao was eliminated after five games in his age-30 season and underwent surgery on his left foot for the fifth time. Although Lopez had a long career despite three surgeries on his right foot between 2011 and 2014, at the age of 30 he moved to a less demanding role out of self-preservation and signed on semi-annual exemption in 2018.

Only O'Neal maintained his dominance into his 30s. He didn't have a single major operation in his 20s. At age 30, he won three consecutive championships (and Finals MVPs) and led the NBA in player efficiency rating each season. At age 33, he would win his fourth title with the Miami Heat when injuries began to diminish his impact and he was never the same again, playing for four different teams in his final four seasons.

As a reminder, the Sixers just gave Embiid a three-year, $192 million contract extension that will pay him nearly $70 million through the 2028-29 season at age 34 – a third of the projected salary cap.

Philadelphia is betting on Embiid, who turned 30 in March, to be The Next Shaq. There were also questions about O'Neal's conditioning at 30, but at least we had evidence of what was possible with him at the helm – a dynasty. He never missed a playoff game in his 20s. Embiid has never finished a season healthy.

We also have ample evidence that Embiid is closer to the end of his career — or at least closer to transitioning into another phase — than he is to anchoring a championship team. Look at the diagram again. Outside of Bynum, who in turn was it retired for four years At this point in his career, Embiid posted the highest usage and lowest availability of any size player in his 20s.

And we expect him to get better if he has to take a break this season? The plan to prepare Embiid for a healthy playoff run is intended to not only rest him for the first week of the 2024-25 season, but also prevent him from playing another 15 straight games. There will also be “regular time off during the regular season and routine examinations by doctors and the 76ers medical staff,” Charania reported.

The one thing we learned from Philadelphia's opening loss to the Milwaukee Bucks: The Sixers are anything but contenders in Embiid's absence. They looked like a team still trying to figure out who they are when the face of their franchise isn't visible, as if they hadn't had ample opportunity to prepare. In the end, it doesn't matter because without Embiid, who they are is irrelevant to the title race.

As such, the Sixers will spend the season vacillating between a team that cycles through its oft-injured 7-foot, 280-pound behemoth and a team that is instead led by a 24-year-old Tyrese Maxey. The Embiid-less version of the 76ers finished last season with a 16-27 record and were outscored by 12.6 points per 100 possessions.

In what world is that a good plan? That's not it; It's simply the only plan available to them. And it also depends on the health of Paul George, a 34-year-old who was on the injured list alongside Embiid at the start of the season.

George's 74 games last season were an anomaly. He missed 40% of his games over the past four seasons due to right shoulder, left hamstring, right foot, right elbow, right hamstring, right knee, left groin and left knee ailments. George, who signed a four-year contract with the Sixers in the offseason, hyperextended his left knee in the preseason and suffered a bone bruise.

Again, will things improve at age 34 if he starts the season with an injury? He is also likely to miss two straight games this season, in addition to his absence earlier in the year. At best The Sixers will have their full complement for three quarters of the season, preparing one team to compete for the title, another to avoid falling in the standings like they did last season, all in the hopes of getting back on track to be able to every other night throughout the playoffs. No team would ever ask.

Except for the Sixers, who just signed on for another four years.

Purpose: Fact. Joel Embiid and the 76ers are in for a long season.