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De'Von Achane, Dak Prescott picks
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De'Von Achane, Dak Prescott picks

With a slate full of exciting games, the NFL Week 9 card offers plenty of value in the player prop markets. In this article I have presented four of my favorite tips for the Sunday table.

Last week I went 2-1 with my picks in this column, bringing my season record to 18-4.

Overall I get 71-48 on player props and a profit of 28.7 units.

All of my tips are tracked on the Action Network app at Wayne_Bets.

De'Von Achane over 34.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM)

I'm going back to the well with Achane after he made money for us last week.

That line increased 10 yards from what he played when Tua Tagovailoa returned, but I still see value in having the Dolphins' starting quarterback in the lineup.

Achane finished with six catches for 50 yards last week and now has six-plus catches and 50-plus yards in all three games with Tagovailoa.

The difference in Achane's role as a receiver was clear with Tua – he has a target share of 9.9% and a run rate of 0.75 yards per route without Tua, which translates to a target share of 18.4% and 3 with the starting quarterback .6 yards per route run increases.

The Bills have also been very vulnerable to running backs through the air, allowing 6.4 receptions and 54.3 yards per game at the position, both of which lead the NFL.

Since the Dolphins are 6-point underdogs in this game, they are expected to be in a trailing game script, further strengthening this pick.

I see a lot of value in this line that still isn't properly adjusted for Tua's return, and I'd play it up to 37.5.

Dak Prescott over 265.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel)

The Cowboys' quarterback has taken a lot of criticism from the media in recent weeks, and for good reason, as the offense has underperformed.

However, this is a nice good starting position for the Cowboys against a Falcons defense that ranks 24th in pass DVOA and 30th in pressure rate.


Dak Prescott tries to get the Cowboys' offense going in a shootout spot.
Dak Prescott tries to get the Cowboys' offense going in a shootout spot. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

Prescott faced the seventh-most pressure among quarterbacks, so this will be a breath of fresh air for him.

This game has an overall score of 51.5, the highest of the week, and every element screams fast lane shootout in Atlanta.

Both offenses rank in the top six in neutral pace of play and neutral passing rate, and neither defense is able to slow the other.

Prescott has gotten over this line in 13 of his last 20 games since last season, and I'm betting he'll bounce back here.

Wan'Dale Robinson Longest reception under 15.5 yards (-120 Bet365)

Robinson has seen a lot of volume in the Giants' offense with a 23.3% target share, but his average depth of target of 4.1 yards is the second-worst out of 101 qualified wide receivers.


Wan'Dale Robinson was an alternative for Daniel Jones this year.
Wan'Dale Robinson was an alternative for Daniel Jones this year. Bill Kostroun/New York Post

Unlike Khalil Shakir, who has one fewer receiver than Robinson, he doesn't pose much of a YAC threat – he averages just 4.1 YAC per reception. Add those two elements together and you get a painfully low 6.9 yards per reception.

In eight games this season, Robinson has only had two targets of more than 20 yards, and both were incompletions. 73% of his targets were within 9 yards of the offensive line.


Betting on the NFL?


He's only managed that number in one out of eight games this season, and I'd put a fair price closer to the 12.5-13.5 range, especially against a Commanders pass defense that's rapidly improving under Dan Campbell has.

(Keep in mind that numbers sometimes change drastically throughout the week, so if you need help determining whether numbers are still playable or not, call me at X @wayne_bets)


Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne covers college football and the NFL for the New York Post. It is up 84.5 units in both sports, with an ROI of 6.27%.

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