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Democrats' chances of winning the Senate, House and White House
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Democrats' chances of winning the Senate, House and White House

Two leading bookmakers are offering bets on Democrats winning control of the White House, Senate and House of Representatives on November 5.

In conversation with NewsweekAccording to Betfair, the odds of the Democrats winning all three contests are 6/1 (14.5 percent), while Star Sports has odds of 7/1 (12.5 percent) for President Biden's party to win cleanly .

Polls suggest the 2024 presidential election remains on a knife edge. An analysis of recent polls by polling website 538 released Thursday showed Republican candidate Donald Trump leading by 1.4 percentage points with 48 percent of the vote, compared to 46.7 percent for Democrat Kamala Harris.

HoweverBecause of the Electoral College system, a candidate can lose the popular vote but still win overall – at 538, Trump is the favorite, with a 52 percent chance of victory in comparison to Harris' 48 percent.

If the Democrats don't just secure the White House But both chambers of Congress would dramatically increase Harris' influence and her ability to pass policy proposals into law.

“Even if Democrats manage to secure a victory against Donald Trump, their legislative agenda could be affected if they fail in the Senate and House of Representatives,” Betfair spokesman Sam Rosbottom told Newsweek.

“After losing the House, House Democrats are looking to gain ground on Republicans in this election. They will also diligently defend their slim lead in the Senate.”

“We crunched the numbers and give Democrats a 6/1 chance of winning both the presidency and both chambers of Congress. That gives them only a 14 percent chance of achieving that, compared to the 45 percent chance Republicans have of winning all three.”

Newsweek reached out to the Harris campaign via email and the Democratic Party through an online request form for comment.

Kamala Harris
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks in Madison, Wisconsin, Oct. 30. Two prominent bookmakers have given Democrats odds of 6/1 and 7/1 to win the White House, Senate and House of Representatives.

Scott Olson/GETTY

Newsweek also spoke to Star Sports political analyst William Kedjanyi.

He said: “Republicans may have more to celebrate next week with the prospect of taking control of the Senate and retaining their majority in the House. We're putting a clear Republican win at 6/4, with Democrats leading the way.” It's unlikely that 7/1 will complete a federal government trifecta.

The Democrats currently have a razor-thin majority in the Senate: 51 senators belong to their party, compared to 49 for the Republicans. The GOP hopes to take control of the upper chamber, something it failed to do in November 2022 when an expected “red wave” failed to materialize.

The West Virginia seat currently held by Joe Manchin, an independent who was elected as a Democrat, is widely expected to fall to Republicans. However, Sen. Ted Cruz's seat in Texas could be at risk as polls show him with a lead of between 1 and 7 points over his Democratic challenger, Rep. Colin Allred.

In November 2022The Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives, which led to Nancy Pelosi being replaced as Speaker by Kevin McCarthy then Mike Johnson. According to a study published by The Economist As of Oct. 31, Democrats have a 54 percent chance of controlling the House of Representatives after next Tuesday's election, versus 46 percent for their Republican rivals.

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