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    • Current polls on Harris vs. Trump
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    Current polls on Harris vs. Trump

    Kathleen William Posted on

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    As the presidential election cycle draws to a close, polls continue to show Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump in an incredibly close race as early voting is underway.

    In the latest polls released Friday morning, Harris saw a narrow lead in Tipp's ongoing poll coverage, while a poll from Emerson College Polling also showed a slight edge for the vice president.

    The latest numbers are released as each candidate travels to key battleground states across the U.S. to present their final proposals to voters.

    Here's what you should know about the presidential election on Friday, October 25:

    Register to vote: Text USA TODAY's elections team.

    Live updates on the 2024 election: Trump and Harris travel to three key swing states; Latest polls

    Harris leads New Hampshire but falls behind Biden

    In a new poll released Friday by Emerson College Polling, Harris leads Trump by three percentage points among New Hampshire voters.

    The poll of 915 voters showed Harris leading 50% to 47% among likely voters less than two weeks before the Nov. 5 election. When undecided voters are taken into account, Harris' overall support in New Hampshire rises to 51%, according to the poll.

    The poll showed Harris with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points. The survey was conducted Monday through Wednesday.

    The new poll found that 34% of respondents viewed the economy as the most important issue in the upcoming presidential election. Another 26% of respondents cited housing affordability as a top issue, while 10% cited threats to democracy.

    Democrats dominated New Hampshire in the recent presidential election, but Harris' support among voters has declined compared to President Joe Biden in 2020, when he won the state with 52.8% of the vote.

    According to RealClear Polling, Hillary Clinton narrowly defeated Trump in 2016 with 46.8% of the vote versus 46.5%.

    The new Emerson poll found that a majority of New Hampshire voters (53%) have a favorable opinion of Harris, while 47% have an unfavorable opinion of the vice president. Trump was found to enjoy a 47% favorable opinion in the state, with 53% of respondents having an unfavorable opinion of him.

    “Harris' lead among women is similar to Biden's in 2020 – although male voters have shifted toward Trump by about two points,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “In addition, Harris lags behind Biden’s 2020 support among independent voters, who score for Harris by 13 points but for Biden by about double.”

    Harris 50%, Trump 47% in Tipp's ongoing poll coverage

    The Democratic presidential candidate Harris is three percentage points ahead of the Republican presidential candidate Trump in Tipp's tracking poll on Friday morning.

    The poll of 1,260 likely voters, conducted between Oct. 21 and Oct. 23, shows Harris leading 50% to 47%, with a margin of error of 2.8%.

    According to Tipp, both candidates have fluctuated within a three-point range over the past 10 days.

    “This stable but small margin suggests a volatile electorate where every percentage point counts,” Tipp noted.

    Bloomberg's swing state poll shows the candidates undecided

    The candidates are statistically ranked among likely voters in seven swing states, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll conducted Wednesday evening.

    Harris is narrowly ahead of Trump in all swing states, 49.1% to 48.5%, within the margin of error of one percentage point. The data comes from a survey that surveyed 5,308 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from October 16-20.

    “Harris outperforms her opponent in the poll on several personal attributes that could help her appeal to disaffected Republicans. When asked which candidate could best be described as mentally fit, honest and compassionate, swing-state voters overwhelmingly chose Harris,” Bloomberg reported. That contrasts with findings that more voters see Trump as experienced, patriotic and see yourself as a strong leader.

    The historic gap between men and women defines Harris vs. Trump

    The gender gap is widening and deepening, recent surveys show.

    In the latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University national poll, women strongly supported Harris, 53% to 36%. That's a reflection of men's overwhelming support for Trump, 53% to 37%. If these margins persist through Election Day, it would be the largest gap since the gender gap emerged more than four decades ago, in 1980.

    Both men and women say the economy and inflation are the most important issues this year, with men rating this higher at 34% compared to women at 26%.

    Abortion and women's rights come in second at 17%. For men, abortion and women's rights are a distant seventh, mentioned by only 2%.

    What you should consider when taking surveys

    The margin of error describes how accurately we can assume that the survey results are representative of the entire population.

    If a candidate's lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

    Pew also found that the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, which significantly underestimated Trump's performance.

    This article has been updated to add new information.

    Contributors: Susan Page, Maya Marchel Hoff, Sudiksha Kochi, USA TODAY

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    Kathleen William
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