CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten discussed the factors pointing to a possible victory for Vice President Kamala Harris next Tuesday.

Enten made the case for Harris' win on Thursday, saying she was the more popular candidate – who has traditionally tended to win re-election – as well as the fact that Democratic candidates did better in recent special elections than President Biden's 2020 pick – an indicator that Harris could do the same.

“The signs are as clear as day,” Enten said at the start of the presentation, pointing out that these were the obvious factors leading up to Harris winning.

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CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten broke down the signs pointing to Vice President Kamala Harris winning on Election Day.

Enten began with the simple fact that in every presidential election since 1956, the more popular candidate won, except for the 2016 election, in which the less popular Trump won.

“And the No. 1 sign is that Harris, simply put, is more popular than Donald Trump. Her positive net worth is higher than Trump's. It is at minus two, Trump at minus seven. I went back all the way from 1956 and looked at this.” Does the more popular candidate usually win in the polls?

He continued: “16 times the more popular candidate has won. Only once has the less popular candidate won one. I would like to note that this was Donald Trump in 2016. But of course, remember that Hillary Clinton herself was quite unpopular.”

He summarized the result by saying, “But the bottom line is this: Kamala Harris has been consistently more popular in the polls than Donald Trump. She has consistently had a higher net positive rating than Donald Trump and is usually the candidate who is more popular, wins on Election Day.”

The next sign Enten brought up was that Democratic candidates in special elections over the past two years have, on average, outperformed the last presidential election by two points.

“So the fact that these Democrats are doing better than Joe Biden is a good sign. “Historically, there is a connection between how people perform in special elections — especially in this polarized era — and how people ultimately perform in the presidential election.”

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Enten then addressed the fact that the Democratic candidates performed well in the 2022 midterm elections, even though only 27% of Americans saw the country on the right track and Biden only had a 42% approval rating at the time – factors that normally indicate that the ruling party will be defeated at the ballot box.

“You can see it here in 2024. Only 28% say the country is on the right track, while 40% approve of Joe Biden's job. But remember, in 2022, these metrics looked awfully similar – in fact, they were a little less.” “We believed the country was on the right track, a little more approval of Joe Biden's job, but here the numbers are very similar.” he said.

“And remember,” he added, “even though the top metrics were poor for Democrats in 2022, the White House party historically performed well in this midterm.”

He then concluded his argument: “So the bottom line, Kate, is that many Democrats believe that voters win when they vote. And since abortion is a much bigger issue this time than historically, in 2022, Democrats have done well historically.”

“Maybe next Tuesday the Democrats will surprise a lot of people and do historically well.”

This presentation followed Enten's segment from the previous day detailing the signs pointing to a victory for former President Trump on November 5th.

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