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Chipotle shares fall after third-quarter sales fell short of Wall Street estimates
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Chipotle shares fall after third-quarter sales fell short of Wall Street estimates

Chipotle (CMG) investors are digesting third-quarter results that fell short of Wall Street sales estimates after a string of strong quarters.

The burrito chain reported sales of $2.78 billion on Tuesday, up 13% from a year ago but below expectations of $2.82 billion, according to Bloomberg consensus data. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.27 represented a 17.4% year-over-year increase, beating estimates of $0.25.

Same-store sales rose 6%, falling short of estimates of 6.38%. Its shares fell 5% after the market closed.

In the press release, interim CEO Scott Boatwright said the food, service and return of smoked brisket led to “another quarter of strong results.”

The results come as investors await the appointment of a permanent CEO after former boss Brian Niccol was poached from Starbucks (SBUX) in August.

According to Wedbush analyst Nick Setyan in a note to clients, service initiatives on the Chipotle production line are producing results. In the second quarter, Niccol said the company used improved tools and training to increase throughput and optimize the “cadence of digital orders during peak periods.”

The addition of expo – a crew member between Salsa and checkout who helps expedite the bagging and payment process – allowed five more orders to be added within the restaurant's 15-minute peak time. Currently, just over half of the locations have been able to fill the position. Setyan believes these five additional orders could result in sales growth of about 1%.

He also said short- and medium-term drivers of transaction growth include maturation of new units, customers joining the loyalty program and increased marketing.

Chipotle ended the third quarter with 3,615 locations. 86 locations were added during the quarter, 73 of which were drive-thru. It expects to open 285 to 315 new locations this year and 315 to 345 in 2025 – fewer than the 358 expected by Wall Street.

The long-term plan is to operate 7,000 restaurants in North America. As part of its expansion, the company invested in internal funding.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 02: An employment sign is seen on the window of a Chipotle store on August 02, 2024 in New York City. An economic report showed U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in July, with 114,000 jobs added, the second-lowest monthly gain since December 2020. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
An employment sign is seen on the window of a Chipotle store in New York City on August 2, 2024. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images) · Michael M. Santiago via Getty Images

Wall Street is also paying attention to ongoing ingredient inflation, which may warrant another price increase in the fourth quarter, TD Cowen Andrew Charles wrote in a note to clients ahead of the earnings release.

Food, beverage and packaging costs increased nearly 30% year over year, driven by higher avocado and dairy costs. Additionally, the company said there was a “higher use of ingredients” in the quarter after focusing “on ensuring consistent and generous portions.” The company said this was partially offset by menu price increases last year.

As in the previous year, labor costs accounted for almost 25% of total sales. “The benefit from the increase in sales was primarily offset by wage increases for our restaurants in California,” the company said following the FAST ACT.

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