The presidential race is still too close and will likely once again come down to the Rust Belt trio of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

But the results so far suggest that former President Donald Trump has improved his performance across much of the country compared to 2020, and that if Vice President Kamala Harris could still win, she would win by an extremely narrow margin.

The two swing states named by a major news outlet early Wednesday are North Carolina and Georgia, both won by Trump. Harris probably can't rely on Arizona, the swing state where she has done worst in the polls, although it will take time to count votes there.

If Georgia and Arizona do indeed fall to Trump — and remember, they haven't been called yet, but he looks impressive there — Harris' path to victory hinges on victory all three from Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If she loses even one in this scenario, it's over for her. (The other remaining swing state, Nevada, will be very slow in the count, but it would be too small to make much of a difference in the Electoral College.)

All three Rust Belt states are still close to each other. In all three cases, Trump is leading the current vote total, although many uncounted votes still come from Democratic-leaning areas.

Outside the swing states, however, Trump is on track to do significantly better than he did in 2020. So a Harris victory scenario depends on the Rust Belt defying an apparent nationwide shift in Trump's favor.

For example, Biden won Virginia by 10 percent. Late Tuesday, with more than 80 percent of the state's votes counted, Harris was ahead of Trump by just 1.7 percentage points. That margin is sure to widen as more Democratic areas count, but according to the New York Times' forecast of uncounted votes, she will likely end up with a victory of about five points, significantly worse than Biden.

Similar dynamics exist in many other states, and Trump went wild in Florida, winning the state by about 13 percentage points. (In 2020, Trump won Florida by just over 3 percentage points.)

In fact, it seems entirely possible that Trump could win the national popular vote. It will take time to determine this as it would depend on the final margin in slow-counting states like California.

But what really matters is how the Rust Belt states end, and we're still waiting to find out.

Update, November 6, 1:07 a.m. ET: This article, originally published on the evening of November 5th, has been updated to include the call for Trump in Georgia.