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Bold prediction Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys: Sam LaPorta breaks out
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Bold prediction Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys: Sam LaPorta breaks out

The Dallas Cowboys have been one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season, and things aren't looking good for them. They lost three star players on their defense as they host a Detroit Lions team looking for revenge.

We've seen this script before. The Los Angeles Rams had a gaping hole in their defensive line following the departure of Aaron Donald, and the Lions forced the ball down their throats (even though overtime was starting). The Seahawks were down four on their first seven starters, the Lions used the same strategy to take an early lead and never look back. Now the Lions travel against a Dallas team that is without three former All-Pro players: EDGE Micah Parsons, EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence and LB Eric Kendricks.

Things are looking up for the Lions. Kayode Awosika filled in admirably at defense in Week 4 when Graham Glasgow moved into center to replace Frank Ragnow. Now, just three weeks removed from a partially torn pectoral muscle, Ragnow will return to the starting lineup.

I don't think the game plan is exactly what we saw against the Rams and the Seahawks. While those teams were missing more interior defenders, the Cowboys are missing both of their perimeter starters. That means the Lions have to keep pressuring Jahmyr Gibbs until a backup defender forgets to set the lead and Gibbs can break through to the second level. That's where the magic will happen, where not having to face Eric Kendricks will be a huge plus. I definitely expect several 15-20 yard outside runs from Gibbs on Sunday.

Bold Prediction of the Week: Sam LaPorta has 6+ receptions against the Cowboys

At this rate, you're probably wondering where Sam LaPorta comes in. With the Cowboys down several defensive players, they may have to overcompensate to stop the Lions' running game. Playing substitutes isn't always as much a physical strain as it is a mental strain. I would expect them to focus heavily on action and fakery. The linebackers could be a second slower at reading and reacting without Eric Kendricks, and that will be Jared Goff's bread and butter on offense.

Ben Johnson's game plan likely won't test the Cowboys' secondary too much, as they are disciplined and in good health. Instead, it will take what the defense gives them down low, and that will be a lot of passes to tight ends and running backs. If the Lions can establish the run early and force the defense to respect it, then the play-action game will run like a well-oiled machine.

It was a quiet start to the year for LaPorta. He faced no more than four balls per game, a figure he exceeded 12 times last season. Likewise, the Lions' tight ends have not totaled more than six receptions in a game. I made sure LaPorta could do it single-handedly against the Cowboys. It's a favorable matchup both purely schematically and given the fact that the Cowboys are missing one of the league's best coverage linebackers.

Ultimately, it all comes down to the Lions starting the run early to set up the game. I don't think Ben Johnson will push anything too deep this week, but instead he will put more emphasis on the short passing game and keep Jared Goff's hot streak going. This means good news for Sam LaPorta to get back on track and be the threat we know he can be.

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