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    • Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Here's who's winning
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    Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Here's who's winning

    Kathleen William Posted on

    Topline

    According to polling averages, former President Donald Trump has his largest lead of any swing state in Arizona. The last two final primary polls show him beating Vice President Kamala Harris, although the race remains remarkably close in all seven battleground states.

    Important facts

    Trump leads Harris by 2.5 points in the Five Thirty Eight polling average in Arizona, but leads Harris by two points, 50% to 48%, in the latest Emerson College/The Hill swing state poll released Monday (Margin of error 3.2 points) and four points ahead. 49-45%, among likely voters in a New York Times/Siena poll released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).

    In a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll released on October 12, Trump led Harris by just over five points (51% to 46%) (margin of error 4), matching his four-point lead over the vice president in September.

    Trump also leads likely voters 51-47% in a Cooperative Election Study poll released last week (2,066 respondents) – a large-scale survey sponsored by universities and conducted by YouGov.

    Several other polls show a close race: Harris leads Trump 48% to 47% in a CNN/SSRS poll released Oct. 29, and Trump leads 50% to 49% in a Marist poll of likely candidates released Oct. 24 Voters – virtual tie taking into account the polls' margins of error (4.4 points for CNN/SSRS and 3.7 points for Marist).

    In a CBS/YouGov poll of likely voters released Oct. 18, the former president also had a 51% to 48% lead over Harris, as Trump was among voters who cited the economy and the border as important factors still has a clear lead – although Harris is in the lead with voters who see abortion and democracy as key issues.

    Among likely Latino voters in Arizona, Harris led Trump 56-42%, according to the CBS poll, which is slightly smaller than President Joe Biden's lead in 2020 (more than 30% of Arizona residents are Hispanic or Latino). .

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    What you should pay attention to

    It could take 10 to 13 days to finish counting ballots, officials said, because Arizona is one of the slowest states to release results and there could be another delay this year due to a lengthy two-page ballot.

    Ballot initiatives on immigration and abortion could make or break Arizona

    Arizona voters will vote on the state's Right to Abortion Initiative, which would codify abortion rights in the state's constitution. Also on the ballot is an immigration and border protection measure that would make illegally crossing the Arizona border from Mexico a state crime by letting state police arrest and detain migrants and allowing state judges to deport them. Harris and Democrats are counting on the abortion ballot measure to prove successful — like similar initiatives in seven other states where it was on the ballot — while Trump hopes the same for the border control measure. Immigration is a major problem in Arizona, the Associated Press reported, noting that frustration over illegal immigration in the state continues after a surge in migrant border crossings.

    Important background

    Trump, who won Arizona in 2016, lost the battleground state to Biden in 2020 by just 10,457 votes. Despite the defeat, Trump claimed victory in Arizona and later claimed that the entire voter database of Maricopa County, the state's most populous county, had been purged. Republican officials overseeing the election refuted Trump's claim, with Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer calling Trump's statement “unhinged.” Trump also tried to pressure former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) to overturn the election, telling the governor in a phone call that the results would change in his favor if enough fraudulent votes were identified, reported the Washington Post. In addition to Arizona, Trump is also fighting with Harris in six other swing states. They all remain fiercely contested.

    Further reading

    Swing state polls for the 2024 election: Trump maintains lead in Arizona, while Harris narrowly leads in Pennsylvania (Forbes)

    Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads crucial swing state in latest poll (Forbes)

    Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris surprisingly leads by one point in new poll (Forbes)

    Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads in latest poll (Forbes)

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    Kathleen William
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