Anyone who goes outside in the morning notices that autumn is in full swing and winter is approaching. Although the Washington DC area had a few snowstorms last year, there are no promises that it will happen again this year.

Meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) blame La Nina, where stronger-than-normal trade winds blow warmer water on the ocean surface west toward Asia. This leaves a mass of colder than usual water in the central Pacific, pushing the jet stream further north. For us that usually means less snow.

“For the Mid-Atlantic region or greater DC area, we favor above-average temperatures along the East Coast, including the DC metro area,” said Jon Gottschalck, senior meteorologist at NOAA.

If La Nina pushes the jet stream north, that means most of our weather will be coming directly from the west and therefore higher amounts of precipitation are forecast for the more mountainous parts of the region west of DC and beyond into the Ohio Valley.

“One thing that is often the case with La Nina … is that there is typically less snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region due to warmer conditions and a stronger storm track to the west,” Gottschalck said.

It predicts lots of snow around the Great Lakes and northern plains of the United States. The lakes cause it to snow at the beginning of winter when it is warmer and can provide plenty of moisture. Cold spells later in the winter keep the chance of snow high.

Typically, the really big snowstorms that hit the D.C. region occur when the jet stream dips south and draws moisture from the ocean into the area. Last year, when it finally snowed again in the DC area, there was a strong El Niño, the opposite of La Nina, in the Pacific Ocean.

Current forecasts also tend to be less than favorable to our area's so-called “polar vortex” – those long stretches of dangerously cold weather when air masses from Canada settle overhead.

If you're a snow lover disappointed by all of this, you should also note that NOAA expects La Nina to be on the weaker side of things this winter, so forecasters are far from expecting that either certain things will develop this way.

“The winter outlook is probabilistic in nature,” noted Gottschalck. “However, due to the nature of a probabilistic forecast, other outcomes are always possible. Although they are less likely. In order for our probabilities to be consistent with the nature of this prospect, this less likely outcome must actually occur from time to time.”

The chances are also evenly split between a wet-than-average winter, a normal winter, and a dry-than-average winter for the D.C. region – so a snowstorm is still possible, even if it's less likely to occur.

“There is a dry signal for less snowfall in this region,” said Gottschalck. “However, there is more uncertainty given the weaker La Nina. Therefore, it is generally warmer, precipitation amounts are somewhat uncertain, and there may be less snowfall in the Washington DC area this year.”

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