BERLIN (AP) — The United States' European allies are bracing for an America that is less interested in them no matter who wins the presidential election — and for old traumas and new problems if Donald Trump returns to the White House.

The elections in Russia took place more than two and a half years ago Invasion of Ukrainein which Washington made the single largest contribution to the defense of Kiev. It remains questionable whether this would continue under Trump and how committed he would generally be to NATO allies.

A victory from Vice President Kamala Harris One might expect this to result in a continuation of current policies, but given Republican opposition and increasing war-weariness among the US public, there are concerns in Europe that support could wane.

Trump's appetite for the introduction of tariffs The impact on U.S. partners is also a concern in a Europe already struggling with sluggish economic growth. But it's not just the possibility of a second Trump presidency that has the continent fearing tougher times ahead.

European officials believe U.S. priorities lie elsewhere, no matter who wins. The Middle East is top President Joe Biden Not currently on the list, but the long-term priority is China.

“The centrality of Europe to US foreign policy is different than it was in Biden’s formative years,” said Rachel Thousandfreund, a research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin. “And to that extent it is true that Biden is the last transatlantic president.”

The US will continue to focus on Asia, she said. “That means Europe has to step up. Europe must become a more capable partner and also more capable of managing its own security space.”

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius remarked as he signed one New defense pact with NATO ally Britain that the US will focus more on the Indo-Pacific region, “so it's just a question of whether they will do a lot less in Europe because of that or just a little less.”

Ian Lesser, a distinguished scholar at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels, said that “above all, Europe expects predictability from Washington,” and that is in short supply in a turbulent world in which each government will face different demands on its attention. “But the potential for disruption is significantly greater in the event of a possible Trump administration.”

“There is an assumption of substantial continuity” under Harris that is likely well-founded, he said, and many people who shaped policy under Biden are likely to stay. “It is largely the known world, even if the strategic environment brings its own uncertainties.”

While both the US and Europe are increasingly focused on competition with Asia, the ongoing war in Europe means that “the potential cost of abandoning European security on the American side is much higher today than it was a few years ago.” said Lesser. Europe's ability to deal with it depends on how quickly it happens, he said.

Europe's declining defense spending has angered U.S. administrations of both parties for years, even as NATO members including Germany picked up the pace after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. NATO predicts that 23 of the 32 allies will meet their goal of spending 2% or more of gross domestic product on defense this year, compared with just three a decade ago.

During his 2017-2021 term, Trump threatened to “give up” delinquent “Countries if they didn’t pay their “bills”. In the election campaign this time he suggested that Russia could do whatever it wanted with them.

His bluster has eroded trust and worried countries closest to an increasingly unpredictable Russia, such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

Europeans view the war in Ukraine as an existential challenge in a way that the United States ultimately may not see it, even as some signs of war weariness are emerging in Europe itself.

If Trump wins, “there is every indication that he has no interest in continuing to support Ukraine in this war” and he will quickly push for some kind of ceasefire or peace deal that Kiev may not like and that Europe may not be ready for is. Thousandfriend said. “And there is simply no way that Europe can fill the military gap that would arise if the US were to withdraw its support.”

“Even under a Harris administration, there is a growing, evolving debate — frankly on both sides of the Atlantic — about what comes next in the war in Ukraine and what the end game is,” Lesser said.

Biden stressed the need to stay the course in Ukraine during a press conference recent visit to Berlin as he consulted with German, French and British leaders.

“We must not let up. We must maintain our support,” Biden said. “In my view, we must continue until Ukraine achieves a just and lasting peace.”

The times he has lived through have taught him that “we should never underestimate the power of democracy, we should never underestimate the value of alliances,” Biden, 81, added.

Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who awarded Biden Germany's highest honor for his services to transatlantic relations, hopes that Biden's compatriots will listen.

“I hope that in the coming months Europeans will remember this: America is indispensable to us,” he said. “And I also hope that Americans remember this: your allies are indispensable to you. We are more than just “other countries” in the world – we are partners, we are friends.”

Whoever wins the White House, the coming years could be rocky.

“Whatever the outcome next week, half the country will be angry,” Lesser said, noting that there is “every prospect” of divided government in Washington. “Europe will be faced with a very chaotic and sometimes dysfunctional America.”

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Associated Press writer Lorne Cook in Brussels contributed to this report.