The U.S. government is heading toward a major crisis of legitimacy—that is, a weak or even broken consensus among the American people about whether its representatives in Washington truly deserve their allegiance. This crisis is unlikely to be resolved by the presidential election, and it could well lead to more contentious and violent politics in the coming months and years.

As I recently argued Foreign AffairsUS politics has entered an era of violent populism, with historically high levels of political violence on both the right and left that have been getting worse for years. This trend is driven in large part by the country's ongoing transition from a white-majority society to a white-minority society. The panic and grievances (real and imagined) that accompanied this demographic shift are contributing to the meteoric rise of Donald Trump and both parties' increased focus on immigration.

The 2024 presidential election season was the most violent since 1968 – a year rocked by nationwide protests against racism at home and militarism abroad and marred by the assassinations of Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert Kennedy, a leading candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination . This year there have been two assassination attempts against Republican candidate Donald Trump and threats against election officials across the country. And if Trump loses, many Americans fear he will disavow the results and incite violence to overturn them, as he did after the 2020 election, an attempt that resulted in an insurrectionary uprising in the US on January 6, 2021 -Capitol culminated.

The era of violent populism is likely to continue and even worsen, with increasing polarization, gridlock in decision-making in Washington, and increasing risks of political upheaval. U.S. states may seek to prevent implementation of national policies that conflict with the views of their constituents. And the country's internal political turmoil will threaten Washington's ability to lead on the world stage.

A legitimacy crisis

As democratic theorist David Eastman explained in 1965, legitimacy involves more than the belief that government procedures will be followed; it involves “a strong inner belief in the moral validity” of the ruling authority. A government is legitimate when its citizens accept that it holds and exercises power lawfully, when public institutions are free from corruption, and when public officials adhere to democratic norms.

The United States was already on the brink of a legitimacy crisis before the election. Public trust in American democracy was worrisome in 2024, according to national polls from the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats. Nearly half of the public (45 percent of Democrats and 49 percent of Republicans) believe that “elections will not solve America's most fundamental political and social problems.” Almost as many (42 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of Republicans) think that “political elites, both Democrats and Republicans, are the most immoral and corrupt people in America.”

Most worryingly, the public is sharply divided over what impact the election results will have on democracy. Nearly nine in 10 Democrats (86 percent) agree that Donald Trump is a “threat to democracy,” and two in three Republicans say “Kamala Harris is a threat to democracy.” 44 percent of Democrats and 48 percent of Republicans fear that “people like me will be second-class citizens” if their preferred presidential candidate loses.

The era of violent populism is likely to continue and even worsen.

In other words, many Americans are concerned not only about short-term economic, immigration, and health care policies, but also about the durability of American democracy itself. Many are deeply concerned about the health of public institutions, and many doubt the results of this election will be a true expression of the will of the people.

If recent elections are any guide, those who support the losing candidate are likely to believe that the winner is illegitimate. In a poll conducted a week after the 2016 election, a third of Democrats said they thought Trump's victory was illegitimate. And to this day, in poll after poll, a majority of Republicans believe that Trump was the true winner of the 2020 election.

The most worrisome scenario for this election is also the most likely: a narrow primary victory for one side, leading to weeks of recounts and court challenges and fueling distrust about the final outcome. The news media may declare a winner relatively soon after the polls close, but the new president's perceived legitimacy may begin to wane from that point on.

NO EXIT

Which exact path Washington will take toward losing legitimacy will depend on which candidate is declared the winner. If Kamala Harris prevails, Trump and the right-wing media will likely allege mass voter fraud. As in the run-up to the 2020 election, they have already made this claim in the form of claims and lawsuits challenging the legitimacy of certain voters in key states. The difference is that many of Trump's supporters have become more skeptical and radical in the last four years. The number of Republicans who doubt Harris' legitimacy could be significantly higher than those who doubt Biden's legitimacy. The immediate risks of January 6th-style mob violence and lone wolf attacks are significant, as more people would likely heed Trump's calls to “fight like hell.”

Even if Trump wins the Electoral College count, it is likely that he will lose the popular vote. The more fundamental accusation that will be made against him will be that he does not represent the general will of the people. The lack of immediate violence following a Trump victory should not be taken as a sign of a smooth future. If Trump succeeds in launching his proposed draconian mass deportation program, it will require significant use of force by law enforcement, which could lead to fierce resistance. He may also make good on his threat to use the US military against demonstrators.

Many political elites will continue to advocate for the next president, but others will side with and empower voters who doubt the legitimacy of the new administration. Far from paying a political penalty for election denial and his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, Trump benefited enormously from this behavior. Unfortunately, this sends a dark message to future American political leaders: undermining the winner's legitimacy pays political dividends. American democracy may eventually recover, but its greatest tests still lie ahead.

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