When Donald Trump first took over the presidency of the United States after his election victory in 2016, there were hopes in Moscow that the billionaire politician would be more friendly to Russia's interests.

It didn't quite work out that way. Despite indictments against several Trump associates over allegations that the Kremlin tried to sway the election in Trump's favor, he tightened sanctions against Moscow after his term in office and bolstered Ukraine's defense capabilities with Javelin missiles.

Now, eight years later, after Trump won the presidential race this week by defeating Vice President Kamala Harris, the response from the Kremlin has so far been far more muted.

While a number of world leaders – from French President Emmanuel Macron and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to NATO chief Mark Rutte and Chinese President Xi Jinping – have congratulated Trump on his victory, Russian President Vladimir Putin has not . This is in contrast to 2016, when Putin was among the first world leaders to congratulate Trump on his election victory.

“Let us not forget that we are talking about an unfriendly country that is involved both directly and indirectly in the war against our state,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday morning.

Peskov added that Putin does not plan to congratulate Trump in the near future but will wait to see how he behaves once he is in office.

“Once (in the Oval Office), statements can sometimes take on a different tone. That is why we say that we will analyze everything carefully, monitor everything and draw conclusions from concrete words and concrete actions,” Peskov said.

In contrast, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was quick to congratulate Trump on his “impressive” victory.

According to Alexey Malinin, the Moscow-based founder of the Center for International Interaction and Cooperation and a member of the Digoria Expert Club, Trump's victory is evidence that American voters are more interested in solving domestic problems than global politics.

“But of course no one expects Trump to abandon foreign policy issues,” Malinin told Al Jazeera. “He has already announced that there will be no wars during his term, which suggests that he wants to end the conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East.”

But Malinin cautioned against overstating how much Trump might be able to change Washington's foreign policy direction, even if Republicans had a majority in Congress. Republicans have regained control of the US Senate, but the results for the House of Representatives are still inconclusive.

“In my opinion, it is definitely too early to rejoice,” Malinin said.

Malinin argued that it was “impossible” for Trump to end the war in Ukraine on his own. “It will not be possible to end it through any coercion from Russia, and the conditions acceptable to us may not please either the Americans or many of the Ukrainian sponsors in Europe. They will say, 'So much money has already been spent. Is it really all for nothing?'”

He also questioned whether Trump would be able to impose peace on the Middle East – even if he continued to strengthen Israel's power in the war against Gaza and Lebanon.

But analysts said that while the Kremlin understands that it will not always see eye to eye with the next tenant in the White House, it may enjoy a little more flexibility with Trump than it did under Harris, who was expected to continue to support Ukraine armed and financed.

“Trump has a trait that is useful to us: a businessman to the core, he absolutely dislikes spending money on various hangers-on – idiot allies, stupid charities and greedy international organizations,” wrote aggressive former President Dmitry Medvedev on Telegram. “Bandera’s toxic Ukraine is in the same row. The question is how much they will force Trump to pay for the war. He is stubborn, but the system is stronger.”

Medvedev was referring to Stepan Bandera, the Ukrainian ultranationalist who allied with Nazi Germany in World War II and is now a hero in Ukraine.

Political adviser Ilya Gambashidze echoed Medvedev's comments, calling the president-elect an “excellent” businessman “who is more interested in trade than war.”

“Many people say that Trump is a pro-Russian president or even 'a friend of Putin',” Gambashidze told Al Jazeera. “But we don’t need him in this role at all. We don’t expect him to be a friend of Russia.”

Russia, he said, “does not need any sympathy or help from Trump.”

“It would be more than enough if he focused on helping the United States – the American economy and the social sector. “It would mean that he would move from confrontation with Russia to constructive and pragmatic relations,” Gambashidze said. “We want to say to Trump: Make trade, not war, and everything will be fine.”

Still, there are unknown elements in Trump's foreign policy approach — and those who will implement it — that could pose risks from Russia's perspective.

“We don’t yet know who Trump will put in charge of foreign policy,” warned Ilya Budraitskis, a Russian historian, social scientist and now a visiting scholar at the University of California, Berkeley.

“We have (Vice President-elect) JD Vance, who believes it is possible to make certain concessions to Moscow (on Ukraine), but if it is someone like (former UN ambassador during Trump's first term) Nikki Haley , she has taken a very tough stance on Russia.”

He also noted the impact Trump's relationships with Russia's allies, particularly China and Iran, would have on Moscow.

“We also have to look at the bigger picture. Trump views China as his main strategic competitor and has indicated he will take bolder action against Iran.”

Russian citizens are also divided about what Trump really represents.

“In Russia, those who are smarter think that he is as much a figurehead as the other presidents, and the American power system won't let him do what he wants,” said Katherine, a doctor in St. Petersburg. “And those who are less educated think he’s a great guy. And many are also surprised – why and why the elites in America and our former opposition hate him so much. What did he do to them all?”

And what does Katherine think?

“I don’t really care what happens there as long as our war is over,” she said.

Others who are more critical of Russia's war against Ukraine worry about the consequences of Trump's victory.

“There will be less support for Ukraine, and that sucks,” said Moscow resident Anya B.

“On the one hand, of course, the end of the war would be cool, but if support for Ukraine from other countries, primarily the USA, ends, what will the end of the war look like? Destruction of Ukraine? He (Putin) will not stop the way things are going.”