The Fox News Decision Desk believes Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., managed to survive a tough re-election fight and defeat her Republican opponent in the swing state.

She defeated her challenger Eric Hovde, a Republican businessman who wanted to replace her. He was notably supported by former President Trump.

Baldwin will now serve a third term in the Upper House after being first elected in 2012.

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Hovde and Baldwin were competing for a seat in the Wisconsin Senate. (Reuters)

The race in Wisconsin was considered particularly hotly contested as the state was also expected to be crucial in the presidential election. Given the sharp decline in split-ticket voting, a Senate candidate would have a much greater chance of winning if the presidential candidate also carried the state.

The Fox News Power Rankings ranked Wisconsin as the front-runner in the mid-October presidential election. At the end of September, the Senate race was classified as Leans Democrat.

The biggest political handicap, the Cook Political Report, also long held the view that the Wisconsin Senate race was in the “Lean Democrat” category, but last month changed its rating to “Toss up,” citing one closing poll difference between the candidates.

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Republican U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde arrives to speak at a rally hosted by President Trump on April 2, 2024 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

A source familiar confirmed to Fox News Digital in October that Baldwin's internal polling had shown the candidates were within the margin of error.

Baldwin ran unopposed in the Democratic Senate primary, and Hovde avoided a competitive primary without prominent opponents in the Republican race.

During the campaign, Baldwin attacked the Republican over his business ventures, pointing to his past as a banker, with one of his financial institutions originating in California.

Hovde highlighted Baldwin's long career so far in Washington, D.C., and the small difference between her voting record and the policies of President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. He also stressed that Baldwin and her partner Maria Brisbane, a private wealth advisor, are not married and that the senator therefore avoids disclosing their financial information and potential conflicts of interest.

The Wisconsin Senate race shifts to a handicapper as Tammy Baldwin fights for re-election

Senator Tammy Baldwin speaks during the WisDems state convention on June 8, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Daniel Boczarski/Getty Images for the Democratic Party of Wisconsin)

Baldwin received the endorsement of the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation board of directors in early October, a notable achievement in the rural state. The group also noted its support of two Republican congressmen, Reps. Derrick Van Orden and Tom Tiffany.

“Senator Baldwin, Rep. Van Orden and Rep. Tiffany support agriculture in Wisconsin by working directly with the farming community in their districts,” WFBF President Brad Olson said in a statement.

“The Wisconsin Farm Bureau looks forward to working with Senator Baldwin, Representative Van Orden and Representative Tiffany as they work on behalf of Wisconsin farmers,” he said. “All have demonstrated strong support for policies that address the critical challenges facing farmers and the agricultural industry, including securing crop insurance, expanding policies that open markets for American agricultural products, and promoting agricultural research and innovation .”

A woman puts on a cheese hat with an American flag in Wisconsin. (Reuters)

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A recent Quinnipac University poll showed Baldwin defeating Hovde 50% to 46%, a significantly smaller margin than early polls suggested. The poll was conducted Oct. 3-7 and surveyed 1,073 likely voters in Wisconsin. The sampling error in Wisconsin was +/- 3 percentage points.

Get the latest updates on the 2024 election, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital Election Center.